Disasters We Tend to Forget

On October 23, 2011, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake hit eastern Turkey killing hundreds, and destroying or damaging thousands of buildings. The quake occurred on the Ercis Fault, the same fault line that produced the 1988 Armenian earthquake that killed 25,000.

The Ercis quake in Turkey is a reminder that natural disasters happen frequently, year after year, and in all parts of the world. A few are covered by major media in great depth and for long follow-up periods, and remain in the public mind for years. But other highly destructive disasters, although reported by the media at the time, are soon forgotten by the public at large.

Among the natural disasters during the last ten years that are most remembered by the public, and were most covered by the media, were: the 2004 Indonesian earthquake and tsunami that killed over 200,000 and flattened villages and vacation resorts on the Indian Ocean shoreline; Hurricane Katrina that flooded New Orleans in 2005, killing 1,800 and costing close to $100 billion in property loss and reconstruction; the Haiti earthquake in 2010 that killed over 300,000; and the Japan earthquake and tsunami of 2011 that damaged nuclear facilities and wiped out coastal villages and cities, while taking 20,000 lives.

Those events received extensive coverage, deservedly so because of the extremely high death toll, the terrible aftermath and mass relocations, and the fact that cameras and eyewitnesses were on hand to record the dramatic and traumatic scenes as they happened.

Also reported  by the media during the past 10 years, but now largely forgotten, were many other natural disasters that took a heavy toll of life and property and had a devastating impact on their local regions. These included:

2003 Iran earthquake. On Dec. 26, 2003, a magnitude 6.6 earthquake nearly
leveled the city of Bam in Southeastern Iran. The quake struck at 5:26 a.m.
local time at a shallow depth of 10k (6.2 mi), and the epicenter was in close
proximity to this city of 100,000. Three quarters of the houses in Bam were
completely destroyed, mainly due to mud brick construction, and another 20%
badly damaged. Only a few buildings remained standing. An estimated 30,000
people died and another 30,000 were injured. In addition, in the greater Bam
region, 100,000 were left homeless in freezing winter weather. Because Tehran
lies on the same major fault line as Bam, the Iranian government, for a time,
considered moving the nation’s capital to a safer location. The Bam Fault is
one of several marking the conjunction of the Arabian and Eurasian tectonic
plates. The Arabian plate is pushing into the Eurasian plate at the rate of 3cm
(1 in) a year, causing a constant buildup of fault line stress.

2005 Kashmir earthquake. In northwest Pakistan, on October 8, 2005, a magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck the Kashmir Valley near the borders of India and Afghanistan. An estimated 86,000 people died in rock slides and collapsed mud brick homes. Hundreds of thousands of homeless had to spend a bitterly cold winter in tent cities hastily provided by international aid. The impacted area was only 100 km (62 mi) from the Pakistan capital Islamabad, and located on the same general fault system as Bam. Even worse, Kashmir is situated at a three-plate junction where the Arabian Plate and the Indian Plate thrust into the giant Eurasian Plate, making the area very unstable. To their credit, the press gave extensive coverage to the international effort that provided over US$5 billion in aid to this ravaged area.

2008 Cyclone Nargis. On May 2, 2008, Tropical Cyclone Nargis hit Burma with sustained winds of 105 mph (165kph), gusting to 135 mph (215kph). 138,000 died, according to official Burmese reports, although an additional 55,000 were reported missing and many other deaths were confirmed in outlying areas. The death toll was considered vastly underreported by the press. There was more media coverage of the Burmese government’s refusal to let relief supplies and aid organizations into the country, than of the devastation caused by the cyclone.

2008 Sichuan Earthquake. 10 days after Cyclone Nargis swept through neighboring Burma, on May 12, 2008, a magnitude 8.0 earthquake struck the Sichuan province of China. The epicenter was 12 mi (19k)deep on the Longmenshan Fault in a mountainous region of Sichuan on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. The quake ruptured 186 miles (300 kilometers) of the fault line and was felt in Shanghai, over 1,000 miles away. This fault line where the Indian and Eurasian Tectonic Plates meet is geologically very active. 68,000 people died in the quake, an additional 18,000 were listed missing, and between 5 and 10 million were left homeless.

2010 Russian Heat Wave. In July, 2010, a massive high pressure ridge called a blocking high settled in for a prolonged stay over Ukraineand the Baltic states, blocking the winds that normally flow in a westerly direction that time of year. The result was the hottest summer in Russian history with temperatures reaching 42°C (108F), plus a summer-long drought, and stubborn wildfires that produced a thick, smoky haze over most of Russia. In Moscow, visibility was limited to a few hundred feet, and throughout Russia millions suffered from the effects of smoke inhalation. Before the summer was over, 56,000 people had died as a direct result of the heat and smog.

Is it the nature of the event itself or the amount of media coverage of the event that causes us to remember some natural disasters and forget others? Do we hear more about disasters that affect us more directly or are closer to home? Or is it decision making by media managers that assigns greater importance to one natural disaster over another? Or do some disasters just seem to be more important and more dramatic than others and therefore receive more attention? Maybe a little bit of all of the above.

 

 

 

Tornado Violence

The violent tornado that struck Tuscaloosa, Alabama, on April 27, 2011, has been given a preliminary designation of at least EF4, and possibly EF5 by the National Weather Service, with funnel wind speeds of at least 165 mph (265kph), although other sources place the wind speeds well above 200 mph (322 kph). The damage path is estimated at approximately 80 miles (129km) long and 1.5 miles (2.4km) across at its widest point. The tornado, which moved through at 55 mph (88kph), was produced by a supercell thunderstorm that began in Newton County, Mississippi, and dissipated in Macon County, North Carolina.

The death toll from all the tornadoes that ripped through Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia from April 25 through April 28 exceeds 350, with hundreds more reported missing. More than 10,000 homes are reported destroyed, leaving thousands of people homeless. Federal and State emergency services are moving to find shelter for those in need while homes are being rebuilt. Rebuilding costs could exceed US$10 billion, according to one estimate.

            EF refers to the Enhanced Fujita Scale, a method of rating tornado strength. According to this scale, an EF4 tornado will have wind speeds of between 207 and 260 mph (333-418kph). Damage to structures in the tornado path will be severe. Houses will be leveled or blown away, cars thrown, debris missiles flying at high speeds, and high rise structures toppled. Actually, the 165 mph funnel speed reported by the National Weather Service for the Tuscaloosa tornado indicates an EF3, rather than an EF4, but it has been reported as an EF4, possibly based on severity of the damage.

This 2011 series of tornadoes is the second most destructive in U.S. history, in terms of lives lost. The deadliest U.S. tornado occurred in March, 1925. Called the Tri-State tornado, this storm carved a 200-mile (322km) path of death and destruction across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, taking over 700 lives. The annual average number of tornadoes in the U.S. over the past three years was 1,376. The preliminary count in 2011 as of April 30 is 1,013, with several months left in the tornado season.

Meteorologists now have ways of measuring the energy within a storm system and can predict the high probability of a tornado and the probable area affected. Based on this information, the National Weather Service can issue tornado watches and warnings, but they still cannot predict exactly when and where the tornado will hit. It is up to those in the general warning area to take the necessary precautions. In Tuscaloosa many people did take the right protective steps, but the tornado was so powerful, it took the lives of some who had taken refuge in places that would ordinarily be considered safe. 

            Tornadoes are spawned when warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico flows north in early spring into the Midwestern and Southeastern United States. This blanket of warm, humid air rises and mingles with layers of cooler air coming in from Canada or the Pacific Ocean. The rising warm air condenses when it meets the cool air if enough moisture is present, and cumulus clouds are formed. The rising convection currents tend to create energy and instability within the cumulus formation. In some cases, the energy moves vertically down from the base of the cumuliform cloud to the ground in the form of a spinning vortex or funnel cloud. Exactly why some cumuliform clouds become rain, hail, or thunderstorms, and others become tornadoes seems to depend on the amount of energy developed within the cloud. When the energy level inside a cloud reaches a certain point and a strong rotating updraft (mesocyclone) develops, the storm formation is called a supercell. It is from supercells that violent tornadoes are produced.

Although the National Weather Service can issue tornado warnings for general areas, there is no way to predict the final path of the funnel cloud, and therefore it is hard for people living the area to move out of the tornado’s path ahead of time. In some cases, it is possible to judge the tornado’s path by watching it move once it appears on the horizon. But tornadoes can travel at up to 70 mph (112kph), so moving clear in the few minutes available is often not possible. The best thing to do for most people is to move quickly into a previously prepared safe and secure place. Basements and cellars, and prefrably under a sturdy piece of furniture such as a work bench, are considered best. If a house does not have a cellar or basement, it is recommended that you move to a small room in the middle of the house such as a closet or bathroom.

Churches and other local organizations were the first to respond with aid to people who lost their homes. The American Red Cross and other disaster relief organizations are accepting donations to special tornado relief funds to provide long-term food and shelter to those in need until the insurance companies pay claims and state and federal emergency aid comes through. Many millions throughout the United States and the world share the pain of those who suffered losses in these storms. It is fervently hoped that healing comes in time, and that people are back in their rebuilt homes and life returns to normal soon.