Disasters We Tend to Forget

On October 23, 2011, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake hit eastern Turkey killing hundreds, and destroying or damaging thousands of buildings. The quake occurred on the Ercis Fault, the same fault line that produced the 1988 Armenian earthquake that killed 25,000.

The Ercis quake in Turkey is a reminder that natural disasters happen frequently, year after year, and in all parts of the world. A few are covered by major media in great depth and for long follow-up periods, and remain in the public mind for years. But other highly destructive disasters, although reported by the media at the time, are soon forgotten by the public at large.

Among the natural disasters during the last ten years that are most remembered by the public, and were most covered by the media, were: the 2004 Indonesian earthquake and tsunami that killed over 200,000 and flattened villages and vacation resorts on the Indian Ocean shoreline; Hurricane Katrina that flooded New Orleans in 2005, killing 1,800 and costing close to $100 billion in property loss and reconstruction; the Haiti earthquake in 2010 that killed over 300,000; and the Japan earthquake and tsunami of 2011 that damaged nuclear facilities and wiped out coastal villages and cities, while taking 20,000 lives.

Those events received extensive coverage, deservedly so because of the extremely high death toll, the terrible aftermath and mass relocations, and the fact that cameras and eyewitnesses were on hand to record the dramatic and traumatic scenes as they happened.

Also reported  by the media during the past 10 years, but now largely forgotten, were many other natural disasters that took a heavy toll of life and property and had a devastating impact on their local regions. These included:

2003 Iran earthquake. On Dec. 26, 2003, a magnitude 6.6 earthquake nearly
leveled the city of Bam in Southeastern Iran. The quake struck at 5:26 a.m.
local time at a shallow depth of 10k (6.2 mi), and the epicenter was in close
proximity to this city of 100,000. Three quarters of the houses in Bam were
completely destroyed, mainly due to mud brick construction, and another 20%
badly damaged. Only a few buildings remained standing. An estimated 30,000
people died and another 30,000 were injured. In addition, in the greater Bam
region, 100,000 were left homeless in freezing winter weather. Because Tehran
lies on the same major fault line as Bam, the Iranian government, for a time,
considered moving the nation’s capital to a safer location. The Bam Fault is
one of several marking the conjunction of the Arabian and Eurasian tectonic
plates. The Arabian plate is pushing into the Eurasian plate at the rate of 3cm
(1 in) a year, causing a constant buildup of fault line stress.

2005 Kashmir earthquake. In northwest Pakistan, on October 8, 2005, a magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck the Kashmir Valley near the borders of India and Afghanistan. An estimated 86,000 people died in rock slides and collapsed mud brick homes. Hundreds of thousands of homeless had to spend a bitterly cold winter in tent cities hastily provided by international aid. The impacted area was only 100 km (62 mi) from the Pakistan capital Islamabad, and located on the same general fault system as Bam. Even worse, Kashmir is situated at a three-plate junction where the Arabian Plate and the Indian Plate thrust into the giant Eurasian Plate, making the area very unstable. To their credit, the press gave extensive coverage to the international effort that provided over US$5 billion in aid to this ravaged area.

2008 Cyclone Nargis. On May 2, 2008, Tropical Cyclone Nargis hit Burma with sustained winds of 105 mph (165kph), gusting to 135 mph (215kph). 138,000 died, according to official Burmese reports, although an additional 55,000 were reported missing and many other deaths were confirmed in outlying areas. The death toll was considered vastly underreported by the press. There was more media coverage of the Burmese government’s refusal to let relief supplies and aid organizations into the country, than of the devastation caused by the cyclone.

2008 Sichuan Earthquake. 10 days after Cyclone Nargis swept through neighboring Burma, on May 12, 2008, a magnitude 8.0 earthquake struck the Sichuan province of China. The epicenter was 12 mi (19k)deep on the Longmenshan Fault in a mountainous region of Sichuan on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. The quake ruptured 186 miles (300 kilometers) of the fault line and was felt in Shanghai, over 1,000 miles away. This fault line where the Indian and Eurasian Tectonic Plates meet is geologically very active. 68,000 people died in the quake, an additional 18,000 were listed missing, and between 5 and 10 million were left homeless.

2010 Russian Heat Wave. In July, 2010, a massive high pressure ridge called a blocking high settled in for a prolonged stay over Ukraineand the Baltic states, blocking the winds that normally flow in a westerly direction that time of year. The result was the hottest summer in Russian history with temperatures reaching 42°C (108F), plus a summer-long drought, and stubborn wildfires that produced a thick, smoky haze over most of Russia. In Moscow, visibility was limited to a few hundred feet, and throughout Russia millions suffered from the effects of smoke inhalation. Before the summer was over, 56,000 people had died as a direct result of the heat and smog.

Is it the nature of the event itself or the amount of media coverage of the event that causes us to remember some natural disasters and forget others? Do we hear more about disasters that affect us more directly or are closer to home? Or is it decision making by media managers that assigns greater importance to one natural disaster over another? Or do some disasters just seem to be more important and more dramatic than others and therefore receive more attention? Maybe a little bit of all of the above.

 

 

 

Can Drought Bring Another Dust Bowl?

In the 1930′s, a decade-long drought, high winds, and lack of soil conservation combined to strip the topsoil from hundreds of millions of acres of Great Plains farmland. The loosened soil blew east across Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle in thick black clouds that turned day into night. This disaster displaced millions of people and came to be known as the Dust Bowl.

The dust storms persisted for ten years, the concentration of flying dirt so thick at times that people couldn’t see more than a few feet ahead. Frequently the strong winds would carry the black blizzards east to Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, and other eastern U.S. cities, obscuring the sun and increasing the incidence of respiratory illness. Eventually, millions of tons of prime Great Plains topsoil sank to the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean.

Conditions made family farming in the Dust Bowl nearly impossible. Between 1935 and 1940, 2.5 million people gave up their farms and businesses in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Colorado, and New Mexico, and migrated west, many of them ending up as migrant workers in California fruit orchards and vegetable fields.

Now, 75 years later, the southwestern U.S., including some of the original Dust Bowl territory, finds itself in the grip of another long-term drought. Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and parts of Oklahoma have had little or no rain for over a year. Weather forecasts indicate no sign of the drought letting up anytime soon.

On July 5, 2011, high-energy downdrafts triggered by thunderstorms south of Phoenix, Arizona, created 60 mph (96kph) winds that scooped up tons of drought-dry soil and formed into a gigantic dust storm 100 miles (160k) wide and 5,000 ft. (1,524m) high.  Minutes later, this menacing black front roared through Phoenix, coating everything with fine dirt, knocking out power, disrupting travel, and creating health problems.

According to research conducted by USGS, as global warming raises temperatures, dust storms in the American southwest will become more frequent. Average temperature in the region has risen by 1.5°F (approx. 1°C) since 1950, and is projected to increase another 4° to 10°F by the end of the century. Higher temperatures will not only spawn more dust storms, but will also reduce plant density, weakening roots that hold the soil together. Human activities such as farming on arid or semi-arid land, overgrazing, and use of off-road vehicles break the soil crust. This exposes the land to wind erosion and dust storm formation.

Even though long-term drought and adverse weather conditions may bring an increased number of dust storms to the southwest, a Dust Bowl disaster is not a likely outcome, mainly due to improved farming and soil conservation practices in use in the U.S. over the last 70 years. Dust storms will happen but will be localized, and probably not develop on the massive, region-wide scale of the 1930s. However, dust storms of Dust Bowl magnitude are occurring with increased frequency in Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and northwestern China. Although these dust storms appear to be confined to local regions, wind currents carry their dust in suspension to many other parts of the world.

West Africa. There has been a 10-fold increase in dust storms in Saharan Africa since 1950. The increase has been even more dramatic in specific areas, increasing in Mauritania from 2 dust storms in 1960, to 80 last year. These frequent and more powerful events have caused a major loss of topsoil in Niger, Mali, southern Algeria, Chad, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, and northern Nigeria. Main causes of the dramatic change are deforestation and desertification through dry farming without soil conservation measures, loosening the parched soil which is then easily carried away by the high winds that occur in the region.

The African winds blow dust concentrations westward every year, depositing tons of dust and spores in the South Atlantic Ocean, and over a thousand miles away in Central and South America. As these dust clouds drift over the Atlantic, they screen out the sun and cool the ocean water, reducing evaporation, cloud formation, and rainfall. Dust settling in the Atlantic promotes algae bloom, a notorious fish and seafood killer. African dust storm health statistics are not readily available, but reports indicate many suffer from respiratory problems and there are a number of deaths from lung failure every year.

Northwest China. The huge area of China that borders Mongolia and Kazakhstan is semi-arid, with low annual rainfall. Dryland farming without appropriate conservation measures, and overgrazing of the vast high plains pastureland, have exposed loose, dry soil to the strong winds that come down out of the high mountains of Central Asia. These winds blow eastward toward China’s major cities . Beijing, China’s largest city, suffers a series of crippling dust storms every spring. When the dust storms strike, the sky turns orange, and breathing the air is hazardous to health. In recent years, the wind also picks up coal ash piled up outside manufacturing plants, and mixes it in with the soil dust. Coal ash contains high levels of mercury, so the dust storms originating in northwest China now deliver highly toxic clouds of dust, grit, and poisonous air to the cities of China.

Chinese dust storms don’t stop at the borders of China. Other Asian countries are in the path of the east-blowing jet stream, as are Hawaii, and continental United States. In 2001, a dust storm originating in northwest China took two weeks to cross the Pacific Ocean, finally delivering a dust plume 4 miles (7km) thick that hung for days in a dense haze over the Rocky Mountains from Canada to Colorado.

Middle East. Dust storms are an uncomfortable fact of life on the Arabian Peninsula, the vast dry area between the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, which includes Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. In spring and summer, the subtropical jet stream pushes up from the south at the same time that the polar jet stream pours down from Europe, creating what is known locally as a shamal, a strong wind that blows across the region at over 40 mph (64kph). The shamal picks up fine desert sand in Jordan and Syria, plus silt from the Tigris and Euphrates basins, and blows it southeast as far as India and the horn of Africa.

A strong shamal can create a dust and sandstorm front hundreds of miles wide and over 10,000 ft (3,000m) high. It usually blows continuously for 3 to 5 days, making breathing difficult, gumming up machinery, and sandblasting paint off cars and structures. In 2005, a shamal-driven dust storm brought Baghad to a standstill, one hospital treating more than a thousand patients for respiratory distress. People living in the area can expect 20 to 50 days of shamal sandstorms every year.

As global warming progresses, dust storms around the world will most likely grow in size and frequency, and last longer. And dust storms don’t recognize national boundaries. African dust storms end up in South America, Chinese dust storms in North America, and Middle Eastern dust storms in India and Africa. The dust clouds often pick up other pollutants as they travel, making these storms a serious part of the air pollution problem around the world. We hope that better soil conservation practices, and environmentally safer manufacturing practices in developing countries, will one day reduce the damage in health and treasure presently inflicted on the world population by dust storms.           

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There’s a natural disaster about to happen….

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