Disasters We Tend to Forget

On October 23, 2011, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake hit eastern Turkey killing hundreds, and destroying or damaging thousands of buildings. The quake occurred on the Ercis Fault, the same fault line that produced the 1988 Armenian earthquake that killed 25,000.

The Ercis quake in Turkey is a reminder that natural disasters happen frequently, year after year, and in all parts of the world. A few are covered by major media in great depth and for long follow-up periods, and remain in the public mind for years. But other highly destructive disasters, although reported by the media at the time, are soon forgotten by the public at large.

Among the natural disasters during the last ten years that are most remembered by the public, and were most covered by the media, were: the 2004 Indonesian earthquake and tsunami that killed over 200,000 and flattened villages and vacation resorts on the Indian Ocean shoreline; Hurricane Katrina that flooded New Orleans in 2005, killing 1,800 and costing close to $100 billion in property loss and reconstruction; the Haiti earthquake in 2010 that killed over 300,000; and the Japan earthquake and tsunami of 2011 that damaged nuclear facilities and wiped out coastal villages and cities, while taking 20,000 lives.

Those events received extensive coverage, deservedly so because of the extremely high death toll, the terrible aftermath and mass relocations, and the fact that cameras and eyewitnesses were on hand to record the dramatic and traumatic scenes as they happened.

Also reported  by the media during the past 10 years, but now largely forgotten, were many other natural disasters that took a heavy toll of life and property and had a devastating impact on their local regions. These included:

2003 Iran earthquake. On Dec. 26, 2003, a magnitude 6.6 earthquake nearly
leveled the city of Bam in Southeastern Iran. The quake struck at 5:26 a.m.
local time at a shallow depth of 10k (6.2 mi), and the epicenter was in close
proximity to this city of 100,000. Three quarters of the houses in Bam were
completely destroyed, mainly due to mud brick construction, and another 20%
badly damaged. Only a few buildings remained standing. An estimated 30,000
people died and another 30,000 were injured. In addition, in the greater Bam
region, 100,000 were left homeless in freezing winter weather. Because Tehran
lies on the same major fault line as Bam, the Iranian government, for a time,
considered moving the nation’s capital to a safer location. The Bam Fault is
one of several marking the conjunction of the Arabian and Eurasian tectonic
plates. The Arabian plate is pushing into the Eurasian plate at the rate of 3cm
(1 in) a year, causing a constant buildup of fault line stress.

2005 Kashmir earthquake. In northwest Pakistan, on October 8, 2005, a magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck the Kashmir Valley near the borders of India and Afghanistan. An estimated 86,000 people died in rock slides and collapsed mud brick homes. Hundreds of thousands of homeless had to spend a bitterly cold winter in tent cities hastily provided by international aid. The impacted area was only 100 km (62 mi) from the Pakistan capital Islamabad, and located on the same general fault system as Bam. Even worse, Kashmir is situated at a three-plate junction where the Arabian Plate and the Indian Plate thrust into the giant Eurasian Plate, making the area very unstable. To their credit, the press gave extensive coverage to the international effort that provided over US$5 billion in aid to this ravaged area.

2008 Cyclone Nargis. On May 2, 2008, Tropical Cyclone Nargis hit Burma with sustained winds of 105 mph (165kph), gusting to 135 mph (215kph). 138,000 died, according to official Burmese reports, although an additional 55,000 were reported missing and many other deaths were confirmed in outlying areas. The death toll was considered vastly underreported by the press. There was more media coverage of the Burmese government’s refusal to let relief supplies and aid organizations into the country, than of the devastation caused by the cyclone.

2008 Sichuan Earthquake. 10 days after Cyclone Nargis swept through neighboring Burma, on May 12, 2008, a magnitude 8.0 earthquake struck the Sichuan province of China. The epicenter was 12 mi (19k)deep on the Longmenshan Fault in a mountainous region of Sichuan on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. The quake ruptured 186 miles (300 kilometers) of the fault line and was felt in Shanghai, over 1,000 miles away. This fault line where the Indian and Eurasian Tectonic Plates meet is geologically very active. 68,000 people died in the quake, an additional 18,000 were listed missing, and between 5 and 10 million were left homeless.

2010 Russian Heat Wave. In July, 2010, a massive high pressure ridge called a blocking high settled in for a prolonged stay over Ukraineand the Baltic states, blocking the winds that normally flow in a westerly direction that time of year. The result was the hottest summer in Russian history with temperatures reaching 42°C (108F), plus a summer-long drought, and stubborn wildfires that produced a thick, smoky haze over most of Russia. In Moscow, visibility was limited to a few hundred feet, and throughout Russia millions suffered from the effects of smoke inhalation. Before the summer was over, 56,000 people had died as a direct result of the heat and smog.

Is it the nature of the event itself or the amount of media coverage of the event that causes us to remember some natural disasters and forget others? Do we hear more about disasters that affect us more directly or are closer to home? Or is it decision making by media managers that assigns greater importance to one natural disaster over another? Or do some disasters just seem to be more important and more dramatic than others and therefore receive more attention? Maybe a little bit of all of the above.

 

 

 

Japanese Earthquake Catastrophe: Where Will It Happen Next?

The earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan on 11 March has been so thoroughly covered and analyzed by the mass media, there is very little one can add about the specific event. To recap reported facts, an estimated 500 km (310 mi) section of the fault line separating the Pacific Plate and the Okhotsk Plate ruptured at the bottom of the Japan Trench, as the Pacific Plate subducted (thrust under) the Okhotsk Plate. This sudden release of energy and deformation of the seafloor triggered a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and a fast-moving tsunami that battered northern Honshu Island with waves up to 10m (33 ft). The epicenter was located 130 km (81 mi) off the coast at a relatively shallow depth of 24km (15 mi).

            The earthquake and tsunami devastated Sendai and other cities and villages along the northeastern Honshu coast. It is estimated that more than 10,000 have died, many more thousands are injured and missing, and many more thousands homeless. The financial loss is thought to be in excess of US$100 billion. An added complication is the damage sustained by three nuclear reactors along that part of the coast. Measurable radiation was discharged into the atmosphere as a result of explosions in two of the reactors, and residents have been evacuated in a 20km (12 mi) radius. Meltdown is considered a possibility. People all over the world are mourning with the people of Japan, and many governments have come forth with offers of aid and financial assistance.

Ring of Fire. The Japan Trench is part of the Pacific Ring of Fire, the series of connecting fault lines, volcanic arcs, and undersea trenches that start in New Zealand and follow the Pacific Rim around Australia, up through Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan, the Aleutian Islands, and down the coasts of North America and South America to Tierra del Fuego. The Ring of Fire marks the boundary of the Pacific Plate and the continental plates of the various land masses around the Pacific Basin. The Pacific Plate is moving north at a rate of between 4 cm (1.4 in) and 10 cm (3.5 in) a year, depending on location, exerting constant pressure on the slower and opposite-moving continental plates. Stress builds up over hundreds of years until a section of the fault line ruptures. Energy released by the sudden earth movement can produce extremely powerful earthquakes and tsunamis. In the case of the March 11 Sendai earthquake, in a period of 6 minutes the Okhotsk Plate moved 2.4m (7.9 ft) to the west, while a 500km (310 mi) section of the Pacific Plate thrust eastward under the Okhotsk Plate by an estimated 40m (130 ft). At the same time, that area of the coastline dropped .6m (2 ft).

Can it happen to you? People who live in other countries on the Pacific Rim are no doubt wondering if such a catastrophic event can happen to them. In the past 7 years, earthquakes and tsunamis have caused significant loss of life in 4 other Ring of Fire countries. In Dec. 2004, a 9.1 earthquake struck in the Indian Ocean off the island of Sumatra, triggering a deadly tsunami. More than 200,000 people died in Indonesia, Thailand, and other countries bordering the Indian Ocean. In Sept. 2009, an 8.3 earthquake in the Tonga Trench started a tsunami that took 119 lives in Samoa, American Samoa, and Tonga. In February 2010, an 8.8 earthquake in the Chile Trench sent a tsunami sweeping into villages along the Chilean coast, killing 480. In February 2011, a 6.3 earthquake demolished the center of Christchurch, New Zealand, killing 165.

US West Coast. Seismologists have been speculating that the next major undersea earthquake and tsunami of magnitude 9.0 or greater could very well happen on the Cascadia Subduction Zone which runs undersea along the coast of Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. The last major event on the Cascadia was a Magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami that struck that part of the North American coast in 1700. The area was not populated by Europeans at the time and no eyewitness accounts of the event were recorded. However, damage to trees many miles inland have been dated to match the 1700 event; and records in Japan indicate the tsunami travelled across the Pacific Ocean, damaging villages and taking lives there. Geologic records show that over the eons, the Cascadia has had a major slippage every 300 to 600 years. If a 9.0 or greater earthquake on the Cascadia were to occur today at a shallow depth within a few miles of the coast, destruction and loss of life in Pacific Northwest communities would be severe.

Even though there are identified areas where fault line stress is at or near the rupture point, there is no way to tell in advance where the next major earthquake, and associated tsunami, perhaps, will happen. If you live in an earthquake or tsunami prone area, the best advice is found in that old boy scout motto: Be Prepared.