Tornadoes, Asteroids, & Wildfires

Recent events keep reminding us that disasters, natural and manmade, constantly happen on our planet, and, where possible, our scientists are working on ways to better control outcomes.

32.4 million people were forced to abandon their homes in 2012 by disasters such as floods, storms, and earthquakes. The International Displacement Monitoring Centre reports that floods in India and Nigeria accounted for 41% of this total, but the United States also contributed a large percentage of displaced persons, mainly due to Superstorm Sandy that struck the U.S. East Coast in October.

Late spring is tornado season for Midwestern and southeastern U.S. On May 15, 2013, humid air flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico combined with a layer of cooler air from the Mountain West and 100° temperatures to spawn 16 tornadoes that ripped through communities southwest of Dallas, Texas. 6 people died, 100 were injured, and more than 100 homes were badly damaged, some hit so hard that all that was left was the concrete slab they were built on. One tornado was judged an E4, with wind speed clocked at 200 mph (320 km/h). On May 19, new tornadoes and hailstorms struck in Oklahoma and Kansas, killing 2 people, and causing widespread property damage. More storms are expected.

Asteroid QE2 will miss Earth by 3.6 million miles (5.8 million kilometers) when it sails by on May 31, 2013, but serves as a reminder that Near Earth Objects (NEOs) zip by us all the time. Occasionally one slips through and hits home, as did the small meteor that exploded over Russia on Feb. 15, 2013. The concussion blew out windows and injured hundreds  If another NEO does hit earth, let’s hope it’s smaller than QE2, which is 1.7 miles (2.7km) in length, or 9 times the size of the ocean liner Queen Elizabeth 2. Such a collision could be catastrophic. The QE2 designation has no relation to the cruise ship. It came up independently in NASA’s NEO numbering system.

According to a May, 2013, JPL news release, NASA will launch a robotic probe in 2016 to study one of the most hazardous of the known NEOs. NASA is also developing a project to capture and relocate an asteroid for human exploration. The mission will draw on the innovation of the brightest scientists and engineers.

Scientists from Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena and Chapman University in Orange, California, have partnered in a project using satellites to measure vegetation moisture and soil moisture in the Southern California mountains and foothills. Such measurements are now made by manually taking brush and soil samples for lab analysis. But using India’s Oceansat-2 satellite to measure soil moisture, and NASA’s Aqua Satellite to measure vegetation moisture content, the project team is able to advise local and regional fire agencies of the degree of fire risk much sooner and over a much wider area than is possible with manual measuring. 2013 has seen sparse rainfall and high temperatures in Southern California and much of the U.S. southwest, making the start of the wildfire season 2 to 3 months earlier than in the past.

A recent survey shows that 98% of the world’s scientific studies on the subject agree that burning fossil fuels is greatly accelerating the pace of global warming and the climate changes that bring more violent storms, longer droughts, more flooding, more wildfires, faster ice sheet and glacial melting, and more water and air pollution. The faster that governments, corporations, and individuals can act to speed up the transition from oil- and coal-generated power to non-polluting wind, solar, thermal, and vegetation-based power, the sooner climate change can be moderated and the better off we’ll be.

Restless Earth

At times, it may seem that nothing ever changes on our planet Earth. The mountains are still there. The oceans are where they’ve always been. The prairie, the forests, the desert all seem the same. But changes, some seen, some unseen, are always in process.

CO2 saturation. The amount of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere finally topped the 400 parts per million mark. The measurement was reported on May 10, 2013, by NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory on Mauna Loa in Hawaii. The last time CO2 exceeded 400ppm was 3 to 5 million years ago when Earth was hot and tropical. By continuing to burn fossil fuels, humans pump 38 billion tons of CO2 into the air every year. The more CO2 in the air, the hotter it gets. Are we approaching a time when heat is normal, and ice, snow and cool temperatures are chapters in a history book?

Mayon Volcano. An eruption on May 6, 2013, hurled rocks “as big as a living room” down its slopes, killing 5 hikers who had set out with a group to hike to the crater. Mayon is located on the island of Luzon in the Philippines, 340km (212mi) from Manila. On May 4, 2013, the Cleveland Volcano in the Aleutian Islands began erupting. So far, the eruptions have been low level, but in 2001, a Mount Cleveland eruption shot an ash cloud 39,000 feet (11,820m) into the air, endangering aircraft flying south of Alaska. There are 1,500 active volcanoes in the world. An average of 60 erupt every year, most emitting low levels of gas, lava, and ash.

Iran and Tonga earthquakes. On May 11, 2013, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake hit southern Iran where the Arabian Plate converges with the Eurasian Plate. Some news sources report 15 people killed, others 15 injured. On the same day, a magnitude 6.5 quake struck north of Tonga, deep in the Tonga Trench where the Pacific Plate converges with the Australian Plate. No deaths or injuries were reported. Wherever tectonic plates collide, there will be fault line failures and earthquakes.

Landsat 8. Droughts, floods, rainforest destruction, loss of arable land are examples of earth changes that need to be tracked and managed. That’s the mission of the Landsat series of earth-monitoring satellites. Landsat 8, the latest in the series, was launched by NASA in February, 2013. USGS will take operational control of the satellite starting on May 30, 2013. USGS currently operates Landsats 4, 5, and 7. Landsat 8 will make the fourth in the group, each one mapping a different part of the world. Landsat data can assist a broad range of specialists in managing the world’s food, water, forests, and other natural resources. Landsat imaging also tracks changes brought by manmade and natural disasters, Arctic and Antarctic ice changes, crop yields and failures, and dozens of other measurements important to the health of the planet and the people living on it.

 Snowpack and snowmelt analysis. As global warming thins the snowpack in the mountains of the western U.S. and other semi-arid regions, it becomes more important to know exactly how much water will be available for farmers and growing populations. NASA’s Airborne Snow Observatory mounted in a Twin Otter aircraft, uses lidar – a laser beam echoing measurement system – to assess snowpack volume and melt. Preliminary tests flying over the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountain watersheds indicate the new system is far more accurate than the present method of taking manual measurements. The system can calculate snow depth within 4 inches (10cm), and snow water equivalent to within 5%. Water system managers who depend on snowmelt for their fresh water supply can use this data to plan ahead more accurately.

Earth is restless. Mountain ranges are either gaining or losing height. Some gain a few inches a year from the squeezing of tectonic plates. Some lose a few inches through weathering and erosion, and will someday disappear. Global warming is melting Arctic ice, and moving forests northward, along with rain and snow. Temperate areas are becoming drier and hotter. Storms are getting stronger and more erratic. As we go about our day to day business, it may not seem like much is changing. But it does. Every day.

Remotely Triggered Earthquakes

On April 16, 2013, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck near the Iran/Pakistan border. 40 people died, and the quake demolished 85% of the buildings in Mashkel, Pakistan, population 250,000. Other mountain villages in the area are thought to have suffered heavy damage and additional loss of life. Magnitude 7.8 earthquakes have been known to produce far [...]

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Water, Water, Everywhere

Water, water everywhere, Nor any drop to drink In Samuel Coleridge’s Rime of the Ancient Mariner, a sailing ship is becalmed in the middle of the ocean, and the crew is out of fresh water. Will a fresh water shortage also be the fate of mankind as the world continues to get hotter and drier [...]

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Earth’s Climate — Year 2300

Although we won’t be around to experience earth’s climate in the year 2300 in person, a computer-simulation study released by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in January, 2013, takes us to that future world. According to the Livermore team, led by physicist Govindasamy Bala, 2300 is when the world’s supply of fossil fuels will likely be [...]

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Volcanoes and Mass Extinctions

Earth has experienced several spectacular volcanic eruptions in the last 200 years. Three of those in particular not only took thousands of lives, but ejected enough sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere to cool the planet by as much as 1.2°C (2.2°F) for a year or more. Mt. Tambora, on the island of Sumbawa in [...]

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