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Life Cycle of the Sun

January 28, 2012 By Leave a Comment

A coronal mass ejection, or major solar flare, erupted in the sun’s corona on January 22, 2012, sending a mass of highly charged protons streaming toward earth at 5 million mph (8 million kph). The jolt hit earth on Jan. 24, causing spectacular aurora borealis displays over Norway, Alaska, and other Arctic and Antarctic areas. It was originally thought the ejection was strong enough to disrupt satellite communications, but there were no reports of problems.

This solar activity serves as a reminder that those of us living on planet earth today are a lucky bunch. We are about midway between our sun’s origin 4.7 billion years ago, and its likely demise 5 billion years hence. It is a time when the temperature range and availability of water make it possible for earth to support a flourishing animal and plant life.

It was not always so. Scientists believe our earth was formed about 4.5 billion years ago from the same space dust and gasses that formed the sun. But the sun was too cool to support life until a billion years ago, when it became strong enough to allow life to begin developing. In another 5 billion years the sun will begin its transformation into a red giant, the phase of a star’s life when it runs out of hydrogen fuel and expands before its core finally collapses and the star contracts into a cool, white dwarf. However, long before the transition to red giant begins, earth will gradually become too hot to support life. Water, including the oceans, will evaporate and earth will become an uninhabitable desert. Some scientists estimate that phase could come as early as 1.4 billion years from now.

A few facts about the sun. It is a relatively small star located in the Orion arm of the Milky Way galaxy. It is 109 times the size of the earth, but weighs proportionately much more. Its mass is estimated at 330,000 times that of the earth. The sun is 93 million miles from our planet (150 million kilometers). Its composition is 98% hydrogen and helium, and 2% other chemical elements, including carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen. Its surface temperature is 5,770° Kelvin, or 9,930°F. Its core temperature is 15,600,000°K, or 28,000,000°F. The sun’s surface temperature is slowly rising, and its brightness increases 10% every one billion years.

Will the human race be able to escape its fate by relocating to another planet? NASA’s Kepler satellite telescope has been searching outer space for evidence of planets orbiting other stars. Kepler has already identified thousands of such planetary bodies, but so far only one planet seems to be located in the so-called Goldilocks zone — the right distance from its star to have the temperature range that could support life. The composition of the planet is not known, and whether or not it has water is not known. Even if the perfect planet were discovered, could mankind ever develop the technology to safely transport human beings millions of light years through space?

Here on this earth, It’s true that we have to cope with earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, floods, fires, drought, and dozens of other natural and manmade disasters. Plus disease and life’s many challenges. But we are nevertheless fortunate to live on a planet under a warming sun, with the air, water, and soil that makes it possible for life to flourish. Wouldn’t it be great if the nations, races, religions, tribes, and clans on earth, large and small, could settle their differences and concentrate on making our special planet a better place for all.

 

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Climate Change Speeding Up

December 22, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Three recent studies indicate that climate change is here to stay, it is accelerating, and it will bring major ecological changes to our world.

Global emissions of carbon dioxide rose 5.9% in 2010, the largest year-to-year jump since the industrial revolution began more than 200 years ago. This information is based on a study released in December, 2011, by the Global Carbon Project, an international collaboration of scientists tracking trends in this field. The burning of coal represented more than half of the annual emissions. In 2010, the combustion of fossil fuels (coal and oil) sent 9 billion tons of carbon into earth’s atmosphere.

The United States, which for years produced more CO2 than any other country, now falls into second place behind China, although the U.S. still leads in per capita emissions. In 2010, total carbon emissions in the U.S. were 1.5 billion tons, while China pumped 2.2 billion tons into the air. Developing countries including China and India now account for 57% of all carbon emissions. The study concludes that this trend of ever-rising carbon emissions will make it difficult if not impossible to hold back severe climate change in coming decades.

What are some of the immediate and long-term effects of this trend?

 A December,2011, report based on a climate change computer model developed by researchers at NASA’s JPL and Caltech in Pasadena indicates that by the end of the 21st Century, “… global climate change will modify plant communities covering almost half the earth’s surface.” As earth’s climate warms, animal and plant species in temperate zones will migrate toward the polar regions or to higher elevations. These migrations will pit the migrating species against the species already inhabiting the cooler zones for survival.  Many presently existing species will disappear.

As the report states, “The model projections paint a portrait of increasing ecological change and stress in earth’s biosphere, with many plant and animal species facing increasing competition for survival … Most of earth’s land that is not covered by ice or desert is expected to undergo at least a 30% change in plant cover – changes that will require humans and animals to adapt and often relocate.”

Some areas of the world will change more than others. Among the areas projected to undergo the greatest degree of change are regions of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, equatorial east Africa, Madagascar, the Mediterranean, southern South America, and the Great Lakes and Great Plains areas of North America. To quote the report, “The largest areas of ecological sensitivity and biome changes are found in areas with the most dramatic climate change.” This will be particularly true in North America high altitudes and along the borders of northern forests.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, which was used in the NASA simulation, projects greenhouse gas levels will double, and global temperature will increase 3.6 to 7.2°F (2 to 4°C) by 2100, the same temperature range of warming that occurred following the last Glacial Maximum nearly 20,000 years ago, but 100 times faster. The report paints a picture of a much warmer planet with wet areas being much wetter, and dry areas being much drier.

One sign of things to come is the amazing amount of ice melt being experienced in Greenland, most of which lies within the Arctic Circle. A team of scientists from Ohio State University reported that a network of 50 GPS stations shows that Greenland is rising as the ice sheets that covered this land mass for thousands of years continue to melt at a surprisingly rapid rate. It is estimated that in the year 2010 alone, Greenland lost 100 billion tons of ice through rapid melting. Some areas of southern Greenland rose more than 2 inches (6cm) as the weight of the ice decreased. The rapid ice melt water flows into the ocean, contributing to the rise in sea levels and posing a growing threat to coastal communities and low-lying islands around the world.

There seems to be agreement among leading scientists that human activity is speeding up the natural global warming cycle. To quote the NASA report, “The 2010 emissions increase solidified a trend of ever-rising emissions that scientists fear will make it difficult, if not impossible, to forestall severe climate change in coming decades.” The United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Durban, South Africa, in early December, 2011, attended by representatives of 190 nations, produced a ray of light in the battle to slow the pace of carbon emissions. For the first time, China, India, and the United States agreed to abide by a new emissions reduction treaty to be worked out and signed by 2015, and to go into effect by 2020. Let’s hope the amount of emissions cutback eventually agreed on will be enough to make a difference. Time will tell.

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2011 U.S. Natural Disaster Tab: $53 Billion

November 28, 2011 By Leave a Comment

In its first 10 months, 2011 has already set a new United States record for number of natural disasters that cost at least one billion dollars in property damage. 14 such events occurred in 2011, compared to 9 in the full year of 2008, the next highest year.

2011 saw natural disasters strike in many countries throughout the world. The
earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the earthquakes in Turkey, the drought in
China, and the famine in Africa all took a heavy toll in both lives lost and
property damage. A leading reinsurer reports worldwide economic loss from
natural disasters had already exceeded $265 billion as of the end of June, with
a half year still to go. That topped the losses for the entire year of 2005,
the highest loss year prior to 2011. Because final statistics for many of these
world disasters have not yet been published, this article will focus only on
the natural disasters that occurred in the United States during the first ten
months of 2011.

According to data recently published by the National Climatic Data Center, a division of NOAA, 14 natural disasters causing at least $1 billion each in property loss struck the  U.S. between January and October of this year. The damage per event ranged from $1 billion plus for Tropical Storm Lee in September, to $26 billion for the destruction inflicted by the severe
thunderstorms and killer tornadoes that ravaged the southeast and Midwest in
April and May.

Loss of life, of course, is the most tragic part of any natural disaster. Tuscaloosa
and Joplin suffered especially hard losses. In the first 10 months of 2011, 675
deaths were attributed to natural disasters in the United States. It is hoped
that in coming years, lives will be saved by better disaster mitigation
planning. That would include strengthening building codes in disaster-prone
areas, and restricting building on land susceptible to natural disasters such
as flood plains and hillsides. Planning ahead to lower natural disaster losses
is a priority of several United Nations agencies.

Here are the 14 natural disasters totaling $56.3 billion from January to October, 2011:
Groundhog Day blizzard – February 2. Blizzard conditions with winds up to 60 mph (100kph) and freezing temperatures swept across a wide swath of the U.S. from Albuquerque to New York City. Chicago was especially hard hit with 2 ft (60cm) of snow in 24 hours, closing O’Hare Airport and nearly paralyzing the city. The storm caused 36 deaths, and storm damage was estimated at $3.9 billion.

Derecho wind storms – April 4 and 5. A series of 40 mph (70kph) wind storms
associated with a violent squall line moved the through the Midwest and onto
the east coast. These were called derecho winds, a term meaning high winds that blow steadily in one direction for prolonged periods. The same storm spawned tornadoes in Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi. The death toll was 9. Damage costs were $2.5 billion.

Iowa windstorms and tornadoes – April 8 to 11. A powerful storm over the Midwest set off a series of tornadoes. The strongest of these was a huge ¾ mile (1.2km) wide funnel that struck Mapleton, Iowa, on April 9, leaving a 3.5 mile (6km) trail of total destruction. Luckily, no deaths were reported from this storm, but storm damage reached $2.25 billion.

Oklahoma to North Carolina tornadoes – April 14 to 16. A severe Midwest storm created a band of strong tornadoes that moved across 16 states from Oklahoma to the east coast. The area around Raleigh, North Carolina, was especially hard hit by a tornado with funnel speeds exceeding 165 mph (275kph). 45 people died in the chain of storms. Damages totaled $2 billion.

Ohio tornadoes – April 19 to 21. A heavy Midwest storm produced 61 tornadoes over a 3-day period. On April 20, a tornado ripped through the town of Oregon, Ohio, leaving heavy damage but no injuries or fatalities. Losses totaled $1 billion.

Super Tornado Outbreak– April 25 to 30. One of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in U.S. history struck the southeastern states during this 6-day period. On April 27, 188 tornadoes touched down in Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Georgia, and Virginia, 5 of them rated EF5 with funnel wind speeds exceeding 200 mph (340kph). 343 people died, 239 of those  in Alabama, where the university city of Tuscaloosa was especially hard hit. Damages totaled $9 billion.

Missouri & Oklahoma tornadoes – May 22 to 24. On May 22, a multiple vortex EF5 tornado ripped through Joplin, Missouri with wind speeds peaking at 250 mph (400kph), killing 162 people and destroying a large part of southwest Joplin. Two days later, El Reno, Oklahoma was devastated by one of many tornados that hit the state. 8 people died and over 60 were injured. Damages from the two events: $8 billion.

Illinois severe winds – June 16-22. Strong thunderstorms and EF3 tornadoes hit the upper plains states. Near Chicago, the town of Wheeling, IL sustained heavy damage. No deaths were reported, but damage came to $1.25 billion.

Mississippi River flooding – April and May. Heavy rain from spring storms plus above-average snowmelt sent torrents of water into the Mississippi and its tributaries, causing massive flooding from Illinois to Louisiana. 1 death was attributed to the event. Damages to buildings, infrastructure, and cropland exceeded $5 billion.

Texas drought and wildfires – ongoing. Texas has been locked in a yearlong drought that has done great damage to agriculture, livestock, and the general economy. Wildfires burned 3 million acres across the state. 91% of the state has been declared in extreme or exceptional drought by the USDA. Damages so far total $5.2 billion.

Missouri River & Souris River floods – spring & summer. The Missouri River and its tributaries started cresting and overflowing their banks in June, causing bridge and highway closings, crop losses, and evacuations by thousands of people in 7 Upper Midwest states. The flooding persisted through much of the summer. In North Dakota, the Souris River crested at a hundred-year high in late June, flooding parts of Minot. 11,000 people had to be evacuated. Losses for both events came to $2 billion. 5 lives were lost.

Hurricane Irene – August 26 to 28.
Irene hit North Carolina on Aug. 27 with 85 mph (140kph) winds, moved off the coast, came ashore again in Long Island as a 65 mph (108kph) tropical storm. The storm dropped 8 to 12 inches (30cm) of rain, causing major flooding in several northeastern states. The storm took 46 lives. Wind and flood damage totaled $7.2 billion.

Tropical Storm Lee – September 4 to 8. Lee came ashore in Louisiana with a wind speed of 45 mph (75kph). Wind damage was minor, but this extremely wet storm dropped 10 inches (25cm) of rain on southeastern states. It moved north into Pennsylvania and Western New York where it rained nearly 8 inches (20cm) in 24 hours on ground already saturated by Hurricane Irene. The Susquehanna River rose 20 ft in 24 hours, flooding Binghamton, NY and several Pennsylvania cities. 13 people died. Damages exceeded $1 billion.

Northeast snow storm – October 29 & 30. During this  48-hour period, the biggest October snowstorm in 200 years swept through the northeastern states, with high winds and up to 2.6 feet (76cm) of snow. The freak blizzard knocked out power to 3 million households in New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. Thousands of homes were still without power weeks later. The storm resulted in 27 deaths and more than $3 billion in damage.

Can anything be done tomake natural disasters less destructive? Many places around the world are adopting natural disaster mitigation measures. For example, areas susceptible to heavy earthquake damage, such as Japan and California, have added stringent earthquake safety requirements to their building codes over the past 50 years. All new commercial structures, schools, roads, and bridges have been built to the new specifications, and billions of dollars have been spent retrofitting older schools, commercial buildings, bridges, and freeway overpasses. There are still casualties and property loss when a large earthquake strikes these areas, but the fatalities, injuries, and property damage have been greatly reduced over those that occurred in earlier quakes when unreinforced school and office buildings collapsed, killing and trapping thousands.

If the same principal of requiring safer building codes could be applied to areas that experience frequent hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards, and floods, many lives might be saved and property loss greatly reduced. A recent NOAA climate-change study indicates that future storms will last longer and be much more intense. That seems to make it more urgent than ever to prepare for natural disasters by building storm-resistant structures and building in the right places.

 

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Disasters We Tend to Forget

October 24, 2011 By Leave a Comment

On October 23, 2011, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake hit eastern Turkey killing hundreds, and destroying or damaging thousands of buildings. The quake occurred on the Ercis Fault, the same fault line that produced the 1988 Armenian earthquake that killed 25,000.

The Ercis quake in Turkey is a reminder that natural disasters happen frequently, year after year, and in all parts of the world. A few are covered by major media in great depth and for long follow-up periods, and remain in the public mind for years. But other highly destructive disasters, although reported by the media at the time, are soon forgotten by the public at large.

Among the natural disasters during the last ten years that are most remembered by the public, and were most covered by the media, were: the 2004 Indonesian earthquake and tsunami that killed over 200,000 and flattened villages and vacation resorts on the Indian Ocean shoreline; Hurricane Katrina that flooded New Orleans in 2005, killing 1,800 and costing close to $100 billion in property loss and reconstruction; the Haiti earthquake in 2010 that killed over 300,000; and the Japan earthquake and tsunami of 2011 that damaged nuclear facilities and wiped out coastal villages and cities, while taking 20,000 lives.

Those events received extensive coverage, deservedly so because of the extremely high death toll, the terrible aftermath and mass relocations, and the fact that cameras and eyewitnesses were on hand to record the dramatic and traumatic scenes as they happened.

Also reported  by the media during the past 10 years, but now largely forgotten, were many other natural disasters that took a heavy toll of life and property and had a devastating impact on their local regions. These included:

2003 Iran earthquake. On Dec. 26, 2003, a magnitude 6.6 earthquake nearly
leveled the city of Bam in Southeastern Iran. The quake struck at 5:26 a.m.
local time at a shallow depth of 10k (6.2 mi), and the epicenter was in close
proximity to this city of 100,000. Three quarters of the houses in Bam were
completely destroyed, mainly due to mud brick construction, and another 20%
badly damaged. Only a few buildings remained standing. An estimated 30,000
people died and another 30,000 were injured. In addition, in the greater Bam
region, 100,000 were left homeless in freezing winter weather. Because Tehran
lies on the same major fault line as Bam, the Iranian government, for a time,
considered moving the nation’s capital to a safer location. The Bam Fault is
one of several marking the conjunction of the Arabian and Eurasian tectonic
plates. The Arabian plate is pushing into the Eurasian plate at the rate of 3cm
(1 in) a year, causing a constant buildup of fault line stress.

2005 Kashmir earthquake. In northwest Pakistan, on October 8, 2005, a magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck the Kashmir Valley near the borders of India and Afghanistan. An estimated 86,000 people died in rock slides and collapsed mud brick homes. Hundreds of thousands of homeless had to spend a bitterly cold winter in tent cities hastily provided by international aid. The impacted area was only 100 km (62 mi) from the Pakistan capital Islamabad, and located on the same general fault system as Bam. Even worse, Kashmir is situated at a three-plate junction where the Arabian Plate and the Indian Plate thrust into the giant Eurasian Plate, making the area very unstable. To their credit, the press gave extensive coverage to the international effort that provided over US$5 billion in aid to this ravaged area.

2008 Cyclone Nargis. On May 2, 2008, Tropical Cyclone Nargis hit Burma with sustained winds of 105 mph (165kph), gusting to 135 mph (215kph). 138,000 died, according to official Burmese reports, although an additional 55,000 were reported missing and many other deaths were confirmed in outlying areas. The death toll was considered vastly underreported by the press. There was more media coverage of the Burmese government’s refusal to let relief supplies and aid organizations into the country, than of the devastation caused by the cyclone.

2008 Sichuan Earthquake. 10 days after Cyclone Nargis swept through neighboring Burma, on May 12, 2008, a magnitude 8.0 earthquake struck the Sichuan province of China. The epicenter was 12 mi (19k)deep on the Longmenshan Fault in a mountainous region of Sichuan on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. The quake ruptured 186 miles (300 kilometers) of the fault line and was felt in Shanghai, over 1,000 miles away. This fault line where the Indian and Eurasian Tectonic Plates meet is geologically very active. 68,000 people died in the quake, an additional 18,000 were listed missing, and between 5 and 10 million were left homeless.

2010 Russian Heat Wave. In July, 2010, a massive high pressure ridge called a blocking high settled in for a prolonged stay over Ukraineand the Baltic states, blocking the winds that normally flow in a westerly direction that time of year. The result was the hottest summer in Russian history with temperatures reaching 42°C (108F), plus a summer-long drought, and stubborn wildfires that produced a thick, smoky haze over most of Russia. In Moscow, visibility was limited to a few hundred feet, and throughout Russia millions suffered from the effects of smoke inhalation. Before the summer was over, 56,000 people had died as a direct result of the heat and smog.

Is it the nature of the event itself or the amount of media coverage of the event that causes us to remember some natural disasters and forget others? Do we hear more about disasters that affect us more directly or are closer to home? Or is it decision making by media managers that assigns greater importance to one natural disaster over another? Or do some disasters just seem to be more important and more dramatic than others and therefore receive more attention? Maybe a little bit of all of the above.

 

 

 

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Are Hurricanes Getting Stronger?

September 13, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Recent modeling studies indicate that while the average number of Atlantic hurricanes per year will probably not increase by the end of the century, the intensity and amount of rainfall produced per storm most likely will rise. Global warming is thought be one contributor to these changes. As climate warms, ocean temperatures warm, causing increased evaporation and cloud formation.

 

A 2008 study by NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, last revised in August, 2011, indicates that global warming will very likely bring about these outcomes: (1) a 2% to 11% increase in hurricane intensity; (2) a doubling in the frequency of very intense – categories 4 and 5 – hurricanes; (3) higher rainfall rates than present day hurricanes, with a projected increase of 20% within 100 km (60 mi) of the storm center; (4)  no increase in the number of storms annually; (5) changes will be gradual, and probably not detectable for several decades.

 

Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee, the two 2011 tropical storms that made landfall in mainland United States up to September 13, were not as intense as originally forecast, but were heavy rainmakers and caused considerable property damage and a number of deaths.

Irene, which started as a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa, grew to a category 3 hurricane in the Caribbean, but had dropped to a category 1 when it made landfall on August 27 in North Carolina with a wind speed of 85 mph (140kph). After going back out to sea, Irene made its second landfall in New Jersey, and had been downgraded to a tropical storm when it made its third landfall in Brooklyn, NY.  Heavy rain associated with the storm caused widespread flooding in New Jersey and Vermont. 55 people were confirmed dead as a result of the storm. Property loss was estimated at $10 billion.

Lee started as tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico and was upgraded to a tropical storm on September 2. It came ashore in Louisiana on September 3 with sustained winds of 45 mph (80kph), but was a slow moving and very wet storm, depositing 11 inches (28mm) of rain on New Orleans and Mobile in the first 24 hours. It tracked north, delivering 13 inches (33mm) to parts of Pennsylvania, causing the Susquehanna River to  crest at just over 42 feet (13m), the highest ever recorded. Wilkes-Barre, PA and Binghamton, NY sustained substantial flood losses.

Earlier, Tropical Storm Arlene, the first of the season, produced heavy rain in several Mexican states, triggering mudslides that killed 22.

While this was happening in North America, Typhoon Talas struck Japan. It, too, was a low intensity, slow moving storm that produced very heavy rain. Wind speed didn’t exceed 65 mph (100kph), but parts of Japan received 79 inches (2,000mm) of rain between September 3 and September 8. 59 people died and 50 were missing as a result of flooding and mountain mudslides.

Storm surge was not a factor in either Irene or Lee, but In stronger hurricanes, more people die from the storm surge than from the high winds. A storm surge is created by the wind’s piling the ocean’s surface higher than ordinary sea level. Low pressure at the center of the weather system has a secondary effect in the buildup of the sea and the energy of the surge. A category 4 hurricane tends to build an 18-ft (5.5m) surge, but during Katrina in 2008, 20-to-30 ft (6.1 to 9.1m) waves were reported along parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Hurricanes and all tropical cyclones start as a cluster of thunderstorms moving over warm ocean water registering 80F (26C) and greater. Thunderstorms form in areas of wind convergence. Off the west coast of Africa, the northern and southern equatorial winds collide and force warm moist air to rise and condense to form storm cluster formations called tropical disturbances. As a tropical disturbance grows and organizes, more water vapor condenses in rising air, causing the surface air pressure to drop.

As more warm moist air rises and condenses, the storm system increases in size, the surface pressure drops further, and the storm becomes a tropical depression. The earth’s rotation can impart a spin to the storm clouds at this point, causing even more warm moist air inside the spiral to rise and condense, enlarging the storm area, and increasing the storm’s wind speed. The formation becomes a tropical storm when wind speed reaches 39 mph to 73 mph (62-117 KPH). The storm becomes a category 1 hurricane when the wind strengthens to 74 mph to 95 mph. Here are the hurricane categories:

Category         Wind MPH       KPH                  Surge Ft           Meters

1                      74 to 95           118-152           5                      1.5

2                      96 to 110         153-176           8                      2.4

3                      111 to 130       177-208           12                    3.7

4                      131-155           209-248           18                    5.5

5                      155+                248+                18+                   5.5+

Tropical Cyclones are called hurricanes in the Atlantic, typhoons in the Western Pacific, and cyclones in India and Australia. Even though the North American Eastern and Gulf Coasts have experienced many highly destructive hurricanes, tropical cyclones with even more devastating consequences have occurred in the Bay of Bengal, where much of Bangladesh and parts of India are low-lying wetlands and wide open to storm surge damage. The northern end of the Bay of Bengal is funnel shaped, and storm surges become tidal bores that sweep many miles inland. The Bhola cyclone in 1970 had sustained winds of 140 MPH (224 KPH) and a storm surge of 35 feet (10.7m). 500,000 died. In April, 1991, a similar storm in the same area killed 150,000. The biggest storm surges recorded occurred in India in 1839 when a 40-ft (12.2m) surge killed 300,000; and in Bathurst Bay in Queensland, Australia in 1899 when a 42-ft (12.8m) surge killed 400. It was reported at the time that dolphins and fish were found atop cliffs surrounding Bathurst Bay.

One of the most notorious typhoons in American military history hit Okinawa in October, 1945, two months after the end of World War II. A large segment of the U.S. naval task force that had been assembled for the invasion of Japan was still anchored in Buckner Bay on the east coast of Okinawa. Typhoon Louise, which had developed south of Guam, took a sudden unexpected turn and headed straight for Okinawa, giving the fleet no advance warning and no time to put to sea. The typhoon struck with sustained winds of 100 MPH (160 KPH), gusting to 120 MPH (192 KPH). Waves in the bay rose to 35 ft (10.7m). The fleet task force was devastated. 12 ships were lost, 222 went aground, and more than 30 were badly damaged. 83 sailors were dead or missing, and another 100 badly injured. It was fortunate for the Allies that the surrender had already been signed. The crippled task force would have been hard pressed to carry out its mission had it been called upon to do so. Damage on the island, where 200,000 troops had been massed for the invasion of Japan, was equally severe. Roads were washed out. Supply depots were blown down, scattered, and drenched by seawater blowing across the island. Aircraft and landing strips were badly damaged. Most islanders and many soldiers took refuge in Okinawa’s many caves.

Typhoons changed the course of history in 13th century Asia. The Mongolian leader Kublai Khan ruled all of mainland Asia, including Mongolia, China, and what is now Korea. The only Asian nation Kublai Kahn hadn’t conquered was Japan. In 1274, he assembled a fleet of hundreds of ships and thousands of soldiers and set out to invade the Japanese islands. Off the coast of Japan a typhoon struck the invading force. Most of the wooden ships were demolished and the rest retreated to the mainland. The Japanese called the typhoon Kamikaze, or divine wind. In 1281, Kublai Khan tried again, this time with thousands of ships and a hundred thousand soldiers. Once again a typhoon intervened, wrecking the invading fleet. Kublai Khan made no further attempt to conquer Japan. Twice, the Kamikaze divine wind had saved the Japanese empire. The Kamikaze pilots of World War II were named after the wind that saved Japan.

This is an updated revision of one of this website’s earlier articles. 

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