Tsunami and Natural Disaster Info | Tsunami A Novel & Red Sky

Are Hurricanes Getting Stronger?

September 13, 2011 By Gordon Leave a Comment

Recent modeling studies indicate that while the average number of Atlantic hurricanes per year will probably not increase by the end of the century, the intensity and amount of rainfall produced per storm most likely will rise. Global warming is thought be one contributor to these changes. As climate warms, ocean temperatures warm, causing increased evaporation and cloud formation.

A 2008 study by NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, last revised in August, 2011, indicates that global warming will very likely bring about these outcomes: (1) a 2% to 11% increase in hurricane intensity; (2) a doubling in the frequency of very intense – categories 4 and 5 – hurricanes; (3) higher rainfall rates than present day hurricanes, with a projected increase of 20% within 100 km (60 mi) of the storm center; (4) no increase in the number of storms annually; (5) changes will be gradual, and probably not detectable for several decades.

Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee, the two 2011 tropical storms that made landfall in mainland United States up to September 13, were not as intense as originally forecast, but were heavy rainmakers and caused considerable property damage and a number of deaths.

Irene, which started as a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa, grew to a category 3 hurricane in the Caribbean, but had dropped to a category 1 when it made landfall on August 27 in North Carolina with a wind speed of 85 mph (140kph). After going back out to sea, Irene made its second landfall in New Jersey, and had been downgraded to a tropical storm when it made its third landfall in Brooklyn, NY. Heavy rain associated with the storm caused widespread flooding in New Jersey and Vermont. 55 people were confirmed dead as a result of the storm. Property loss was estimated at $10 billion.

Lee started as tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico and was upgraded to a tropical storm on September 2. It came ashore in Louisiana on September 3 with sustained winds of 45 mph (80kph), but was a slow moving and very wet storm, depositing 11 inches (28mm) of rain on New Orleans and Mobile in the first 24 hours. It tracked north, delivering 13 inches (33mm) to parts of Pennsylvania, causing the Susquehanna River to crest at just over 42 feet (13m), the highest ever recorded. Wilkes-Barre, PA and Binghamton, NY sustained substantial flood losses.

Earlier, Tropical Storm Arlene, the first of the season, produced heavy rain in several Mexican states, triggering mudslides that killed 22.

While this was happening in North America, Typhoon Talas struck Japan. It, too, was a low intensity, slow moving storm that produced very heavy rain. Wind speed didn’t exceed 65 mph (100kph), but parts of Japan received 79 inches (2,000mm) of rain between September 3 and September 8. 59 people died and 50 were missing as a result of flooding and mountain mudslides.

Storm surge was not a factor in either Irene or Lee, but In stronger hurricanes, more people die from the storm surge than from the high winds. A storm surge is created by the wind’s piling the ocean’s surface higher than ordinary sea level. Low pressure at the center of the weather system has a secondary effect in the buildup of the sea and the energy of the surge. A category 4 hurricane tends to build an 18-ft (5.5m) surge, but during Katrina in 2008, 20-to-30 ft (6.1 to 9.1m) waves were reported along parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Hurricanes and all tropical cyclones start as a cluster of thunderstorms moving over warm ocean water registering 80F (26C) and greater. Thunderstorms form in areas of wind convergence. Off the west coast of Africa, the northern and southern equatorial winds collide and force warm moist air to rise and condense to form storm cluster formations called tropical disturbances. As a tropical disturbance grows and organizes, more water vapor condenses in rising air, causing the surface air pressure to drop.

As more warm moist air rises and condenses, the storm system increases in size, the surface pressure drops further, and the storm becomes a tropical depression. The earth’s rotation can impart a spin to the storm clouds at this point, causing even more warm moist air inside the spiral to rise and condense, enlarging the storm area, and increasing the storm’s wind speed. The formation becomes a tropical storm when wind speed reaches 39 mph to 73 mph (62-117 KPH). The storm becomes a category 1 hurricane when the wind strengthens to 74 mph to 95 mph. Here are the hurricane categories:

Category Wind MPH KPH Surge Ft Meters

1 74 to 95 118-152 5 1.5

2 96 to 110 153-176 8 2.4

3 111 to 130 177-208 12 3.7

4 131-155 209-248 18 5.5

5 155+ 248+ 18+ 5.5+

Tropical Cyclones are called hurricanes in the Atlantic, typhoons in the Western Pacific, and cyclones in India and Australia. Even though the North American Eastern and Gulf Coasts have experienced many highly destructive hurricanes, tropical cyclones with even more devastating consequences have occurred in the Bay of Bengal, where much of Bangladesh and parts of India are low-lying wetlands and wide open to storm surge damage. The northern end of the Bay of Bengal is funnel shaped, and storm surges become tidal bores that sweep many miles inland. The Bhola cyclone in 1970 had sustained winds of 140 MPH (224 KPH) and a storm surge of 35 feet (10.7m). 500,000 died. In April, 1991, a similar storm in the same area killed 150,000. The biggest storm surges recorded occurred in India in 1839 when a 40-ft (12.2m) surge killed 300,000; and in Bathurst Bay in Queensland, Australia in 1899 when a 42-ft (12.8m) surge killed 400. It was reported at the time that dolphins and fish were found atop cliffs surrounding Bathurst Bay.

One of the most notorious typhoons in American military history hit Okinawa in October, 1945, two months after the end of World War II. A large segment of the U.S. naval task force that had been assembled for the invasion of Japan was still anchored in Buckner Bay on the east coast of Okinawa. Typhoon Louise, which had developed south of Guam, took a sudden unexpected turn and headed straight for Okinawa, giving the fleet no advance warning and no time to put to sea. The typhoon struck with sustained winds of 100 MPH (160 KPH), gusting to 120 MPH (192 KPH). Waves in the bay rose to 35 ft (10.7m). The fleet task force was devastated. 12 ships were lost, 222 went aground, and more than 30 were badly damaged. 83 sailors were dead or missing, and another 100 badly injured. It was fortunate for the Allies that the surrender had already been signed. The crippled task force would have been hard pressed to carry out its mission had it been called upon to do so. Damage on the island, where 200,000 troops had been massed for the invasion of Japan, was equally severe. Roads were washed out. Supply depots were blown down, scattered, and drenched by seawater blowing across the island. Aircraft and landing strips were badly damaged. Most islanders and many soldiers took refuge in Okinawa’s many caves.

Typhoons changed the course of history in 13^th century Asia. The Mongolian leader Kublai Khan ruled all of mainland Asia, including Mongolia, China, and what is now Korea. The only Asian nation Kublai Kahn hadn’t conquered was Japan. In 1274, he assembled a fleet of hundreds of ships and thousands of soldiers and set out to invade the Japanese islands. Off the coast of Japan a typhoon struck the invading force. Most of the wooden ships were demolished and the rest retreated to the mainland. The Japanese called the typhoon Kamikaze, or divine wind. In 1281, Kublai Khan tried again, this time with thousands of ships and a hundred thousand soldiers. Once again a typhoon intervened, wrecking the invading fleet. Kublai Khan made no further attempt to conquer Japan. Twice, the Kamikaze divine wind had saved the Japanese empire. The Kamikaze pilots of World War II were named after the wind that saved Japan.

This is an updated revision of one of this website’s earlier articles.

Filed Under: Disaster Info, Tsunami and Natural Disaster Info Tagged With: hurricanes, storm surge, tropical cyclones, typhoons

Can Drought Bring Another Dust Bowl?

August 6, 2011 By Gordon Leave a Comment

In the 1930′s, a decade-long drought, high winds, and lack of soil conservation combined to strip the topsoil from hundreds of millions of acres of Great Plains farmland. The loosened soil blew east across Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle in thick black clouds that turned day into night. This disaster displaced millions of people and came to be known as the Dust Bowl.

The dust storms persisted for ten years, the concentration of flying dirt so thick at times that people couldn’t see more than a few feet ahead. Frequently the strong winds would carry the black blizzards east to Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, and other eastern U.S. cities, obscuring the sun and increasing the incidence of respiratory illness. Eventually, millions of tons of prime Great Plains topsoil sank to the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean.

Conditions made family farming in the Dust Bowl nearly impossible. Between 1935 and 1940, 2.5 million people gave up their farms and businesses in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Colorado, and New Mexico, and migrated west, many of them ending up as migrant workers in California fruit orchards and vegetable fields.

Now, 75 years later, the southwestern U.S., including some of the original Dust Bowl territory, finds itself in the grip of another long-term drought. Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and parts of Oklahoma have had little or no rain for over a year. Weather forecasts indicate no sign of the drought letting up anytime soon.

On July 5, 2011, high-energy downdrafts triggered by thunderstorms south of Phoenix, Arizona, created 60 mph (96kph) winds that scooped up tons of drought-dry soil and formed into a gigantic dust storm 100 miles (160k) wide and 5,000 ft. (1,524m) high. Minutes later, this menacing black front roared through Phoenix, coating everything with fine dirt, knocking out power, disrupting travel, and creating health problems.

According to research conducted by USGS, as global warming raises temperatures, dust storms in the American southwest will become more frequent. Average temperature in the region has risen by 1.5°F (approx. 1°C) since 1950, and is projected to increase another 4° to 10°F by the end of the century. Higher temperatures will not only spawn more dust storms, but will also reduce plant density, weakening roots that hold the soil together. Human activities such as farming on arid or semi-arid land, overgrazing, and use of off-road vehicles break the soil crust. This exposes the land to wind erosion and dust storm formation.

Even though long-term drought and adverse weather conditions may bring an increased number of dust storms to the southwest, a Dust Bowl disaster is not a likely outcome, mainly due to improved farming and soil conservation practices in use in the U.S. over the last 70 years. Dust storms will happen but will be localized, and probably not develop on the massive, region-wide scale of the 1930s. However, dust storms of Dust Bowl magnitude are occurring with increased frequency in Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and northwestern China. Although these dust storms appear to be confined to local regions, wind currents carry their dust in suspension to many other parts of the world.

West Africa. There has been a 10-fold increase in dust storms in Saharan Africa since 1950. The increase has been even more dramatic in specific areas, increasing in Mauritania from 2 dust storms in 1960, to 80 last year. These frequent and more powerful events have caused a major loss of topsoil in Niger, Mali, southern Algeria, Chad, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, and northern Nigeria. Main causes of the dramatic change are deforestation and desertification through dry farming without soil conservation measures, loosening the parched soil which is then easily carried away by the high winds that occur in the region.

The African winds blow dust concentrations westward every year, depositing tons of dust and spores in the South Atlantic Ocean, and over a thousand miles away in Central and South America. As these dust clouds drift over the Atlantic, they screen out the sun and cool the ocean water, reducing evaporation, cloud formation, and rainfall. Dust settling in the Atlantic promotes algae bloom, a notorious fish and seafood killer. African dust storm health statistics are not readily available, but reports indicate many suffer from respiratory problems and there are a number of deaths from lung failure every year.

Northwest China. The huge area of China that borders Mongolia and Kazakhstan is semi-arid, with low annual rainfall. Dryland farming without appropriate conservation measures, and overgrazing of the vast high plains pastureland, have exposed loose, dry soil to the strong winds that come down out of the high mountains of Central Asia. These winds blow eastward toward China’s major cities . Beijing, China’s largest city, suffers a series of crippling dust storms every spring. When the dust storms strike, the sky turns orange, and breathing the air is hazardous to health. In recent years, the wind also picks up coal ash piled up outside manufacturing plants, and mixes it in with the soil dust. Coal ash contains high levels of mercury, so the dust storms originating in northwest China now deliver highly toxic clouds of dust, grit, and poisonous air to the cities of China.

Chinese dust storms don’t stop at the borders of China. Other Asian countries are in the path of the east-blowing jet stream, as are Hawaii, and continental United States. In 2001, a dust storm originating in northwest China took two weeks to cross the Pacific Ocean, finally delivering a dust plume 4 miles (7km) thick that hung for days in a dense haze over the Rocky Mountains from Canada to Colorado.

Middle East. Dust storms are an uncomfortable fact of life on the Arabian Peninsula, the vast dry area between the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, which includes Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. In spring and summer, the subtropical jet stream pushes up from the south at the same time that the polar jet stream pours down from Europe, creating what is known locally as a shamal, a strong wind that blows across the region at over 40 mph (64kph). The shamal picks up fine desert sand in Jordan and Syria, plus silt from the Tigris and Euphrates basins, and blows it southeast as far as India and the horn of Africa.

A strong shamal can create a dust and sandstorm front hundreds of miles wide and over 10,000 ft (3,000m) high. It usually blows continuously for 3 to 5 days, making breathing difficult, gumming up machinery, and sandblasting paint off cars and structures. In 2005, a shamal-driven dust storm brought Baghad to a standstill, one hospital treating more than a thousand patients for respiratory distress. People living in the area can expect 20 to 50 days of shamal sandstorms every year.

As global warming progresses, dust storms around the world will most likely grow in size and frequency, and last longer. And dust storms don’t recognize national boundaries. African dust storms end up in South America, Chinese dust storms in North America, and Middle Eastern dust storms in India and Africa. The dust clouds often pick up other pollutants as they travel, making these storms a serious part of the air pollution problem around the world. We hope that better soil conservation practices, and environmentally safer manufacturing practices in developing countries, will one day reduce the damage in health and treasure presently inflicted on the world population by dust storms.

Filed Under: Red Hot Sky, Tsunami and Natural Disaster Info Tagged With: Dust Bowl, natural disaster, sandstorms

Floods, Fires, & La Niña

July 3, 2011 By Gordon Leave a Comment

During the spring and early summer of 2011, the U.S. Northern Plains states of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri endured torrential rains, heavy snowmelt, swollen rivers, and near-record floods. During this same period, the south central and southwestern states were locked down in a 10-month-long drought, with record heat and massive wildfires. This split personality in the weather is largely attributable to La Niña, a climatic phase in which the equatorial Pacific Ocean turns cooler than normal, creating a weather pattern that sends heavy rain to the northern states and dry conditions to the U.S. southern tier.

Arizona and New Mexico wildfires. The Wallow fire in Arizona’s White Mountains burned for more than a month, blackening 866 square miles (2,240 square kilometers) (553,000 acres) (224,000 hectares) of national forest land before containment. High heat, strong winds, rugged terrain, and lack of rain made the blaze especially difficult to contain for the 1,300 firefighters on the line.

In neighboring New Mexico, the Las Conchas fire had burned 114,000 acres (46,000 hectares) of Santa Fe National Forest as it approached within 12 miles (20K) of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. More than 1,000 firefighters set up a containment line to keep the flames from reaching the nuclear facility’s waste storage area. A University of New Mexico geologist who studies the history of wildfires, stated that the behavior of southwestern firestorms in the last few decades “is at least as severe and maybe more so than anything we’ve seen since the last ice age.” Los Alamos Fire Chief Donald Tucker said, “We’ve seen fire behavior we’ve never seen down here, and it’s really aggressive.”

Texas drought. Texas has experienced the longest, most persistent drought in the state’s history. The entire state of Texas plus 32 counties in adjoining states were declared a disaster area by the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. Since August, 2010, the state had been plagued by heat, high winds, and lack of rain. Between November, 2010, and June, 2011, Texas wildfires had burned 3,300,000 acres (1,335,000 hectares). Parched grazing land forced ranchers to thin their herds by prematurely sending cattle to slaughter. Farmers throughout the state suffered extreme crop losses. One farmer said, “It’s so dry, the grass just crackles under my feet.” The June, 2011 high temperature recorded in one Texas city was 117F (47C). All farmers and ranchers in the disaster area are eligible to apply for aid from the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.

Missouri River flood. As heat and flame seared the southwest, the states in the northern plains fought to keep surging rivers from overflowing their banks. The 2010-2011 snowpack in the Rockies and other western mountain ranges was much heavier than normal, as was the spring runoff. Also, the stormy weather that brought tornadoes to some southern and Midwestern areas brought extremely heavy rain to the northern plains. The rain and runoff filled lakes and reservoirs to overflowing, and released extremely high volumes of water into the Missouri’s tributaries and into the river itself. The USDA estimated that the Missouri overflowed its banks and levees in several key places in Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri, inundating 550,000 acres of farmland, and submerging a number of rural homes and grain storage and processing facilities.

Souris River flood. The Souris is a Canadian river with its source in Saskatchewan. It runs west to east, dipping south through Minot, North Dakota, then looping back north into Canada to join the Assiniboine River that empties into Lake Winnipeg. The Souris’s volume increases dramatically as it runs south into North Dakota. In this wetter than normal year, the river at maximum flood stage crested 4 ft (1.2m) above a record set 130 years ago. 3,000 homes in Minot were flooded out and 12,000 people evacuated to higher ground.

The role of La Niña. Approximately every 5 years, the ocean water in the tropical Pacific around Australia and Indonesia warms or cools at least 0.5 degrees C (0.9 degrees F). When it turns warmer, the condition is called El Niño. When it cools, it is a La Niña condition. This warming or cooling of the tropical ocean is accompanied by an atmospheric change in the western Pacific called the Southern Oscillation. High pressure sets in during an El Niño, and low pressure during La Niña. The combination of El Niño/La Niña and the Southern Oscillation is referred to as ENSO.

Mainly, El Niño/La Niña conditions impact the weather in countries bordering the Pacific Ocean. During La Niña, South America experiences drought conditions, and Australia and Asia very wet conditions. In the past, La Niñas have lasted 6 to 9 months. In recent years, they have been stronger and lasted longer. The current La Niña that has been the cause of the northern flooding and southern fires and droughts began in May, 2010, and lasted till June, 2011, at which point it began to weaken, but the damage had been done.

Typically, during a La Niña, Western Canada, the Pacific Northwest, Northern California, and the northern Midwestern states have above-average precipitation, while the southwestern and southeastern states have below-average precipitation. This time, the north was excessively wet and cool while the south was excessively dry and hot, indicating that these phases are hitting harder and lasting longer. Some scientists attribute this to global warming, but that is still under study. Also under study are the mechanics of the phenomena. Meteorologists, oceanographers, and other disciplines know what ENSO does, but can’t yet fully explain exactly why it does what it does.

If ENSO behaves as it has in the past, there will be a period of “normal” weather, during which ENSO will not be a factor. That will be followed by an El Niño, when conditions reverse. The northern tier will experience drier than normal conditions, and the southern tier will be wetter than normal.

The 2010-2011 La Niña produced a series of natural disasters while in full sway, including fires, droughts, tornadoes, and floods that killed hundreds and displaced thousands. Most people will be glad to see it go.

Filed Under: Tsunami and Natural Disaster Info Tagged With: drought, floods, La Nina, wildfires

Tornado Violence

May 2, 2011 By Gordon Leave a Comment

The violent tornado that struck Tuscaloosa, Alabama, on April 27, 2011, has been given a preliminary designation of at least EF4, and possibly EF5 by the National Weather Service, with funnel wind speeds of at least 165 mph (265kph), although other sources place the wind speeds well above 200 mph (322 kph). The damage path is estimated at approximately 80 miles (129km) long and 1.5 miles (2.4km) across at its widest point. The tornado, which moved through at 55 mph (88kph), was produced by a supercell thunderstorm that began in Newton County, Mississippi, and dissipated in Macon County, North Carolina.

The death toll from all the tornadoes that ripped through Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia from April 25 through April 28 exceeds 350, with hundreds more reported missing. More than 10,000 homes are reported destroyed, leaving thousands of people homeless. Federal and State emergency services are moving to find shelter for those in need while homes are being rebuilt. Rebuilding costs could exceed US$10 billion, according to one estimate.

EF refers to the Enhanced Fujita Scale, a method of rating tornado strength. According to this scale, an EF4 tornado will have wind speeds of between 207 and 260 mph (333-418kph). Damage to structures in the tornado path will be severe. Houses will be leveled or blown away, cars thrown, debris missiles flying at high speeds, and high rise structures toppled. Actually, the 165 mph funnel speed reported by the National Weather Service for the Tuscaloosa tornado indicates an EF3, rather than an EF4, but it has been reported as an EF4, possibly based on severity of the damage.

This 2011 series of tornadoes is the second most destructive in U.S. history, in terms of lives lost. The deadliest U.S. tornado occurred in March, 1925. Called the Tri-State tornado, this storm carved a 200-mile (322km) path of death and destruction across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, taking over 700 lives. The annual average number of tornadoes in the U.S. over the past three years was 1,376. The preliminary count in 2011 as of April 30 is 1,013, with several months left in the tornado season.

Meteorologists now have ways of measuring the energy within a storm system and can predict the high probability of a tornado and the probable area affected. Based on this information, the National Weather Service can issue tornado watches and warnings, but they still cannot predict exactly when and where the tornado will hit. It is up to those in the general warning area to take the necessary precautions. In Tuscaloosa many people did take the right protective steps, but the tornado was so powerful, it took the lives of some who had taken refuge in places that would ordinarily be considered safe.

Tornadoes are spawned when warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico flows north in early spring into the Midwestern and Southeastern United States. This blanket of warm, humid air rises and mingles with layers of cooler air coming in from Canada or the Pacific Ocean. The rising warm air condenses when it meets the cool air if enough moisture is present, and cumulus clouds are formed. The rising convection currents tend to create energy and instability within the cumulus formation. In some cases, the energy moves vertically down from the base of the cumuliform cloud to the ground in the form of a spinning vortex or funnel cloud. Exactly why some cumuliform clouds become rain, hail, or thunderstorms, and others become tornadoes seems to depend on the amount of energy developed within the cloud. When the energy level inside a cloud reaches a certain point and a strong rotating updraft (mesocyclone) develops, the storm formation is called a supercell. It is from supercells that violent tornadoes are produced.

Although the National Weather Service can issue tornado warnings for general areas, there is no way to predict the final path of the funnel cloud, and therefore it is hard for people living the area to move out of the tornado’s path ahead of time. In some cases, it is possible to judge the tornado’s path by watching it move once it appears on the horizon. But tornadoes can travel at up to 70 mph (112kph), so moving clear in the few minutes available is often not possible. The best thing to do for most people is to move quickly into a previously prepared safe and secure place. Basements and cellars, and prefrably under a sturdy piece of furniture such as a work bench, are considered best. If a house does not have a cellar or basement, it is recommended that you move to a small room in the middle of the house such as a closet or bathroom.

Churches and other local organizations were the first to respond with aid to people who lost their homes. The American Red Cross and other disaster relief organizations are accepting donations to special tornado relief funds to provide long-term food and shelter to those in need until the insurance companies pay claims and state and federal emergency aid comes through. Many millions throughout the United States and the world share the pain of those who suffered losses in these storms. It is fervently hoped that healing comes in time, and that people are back in their rebuilt homes and life returns to normal soon.

Filed Under: Tsunami and Natural Disaster Info Tagged With: funnel cloud, tornado, twister

Japanese Earthquake Catastrophe: Where Will It Happen Next?

March 16, 2011 By Gordon 3 Comments

The earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan on 11 March has been so thoroughly covered and analyzed by the mass media, there is very little one can add about the specific event. To recap reported facts, an estimated 500 km (310 mi) section of the fault line separating the Pacific Plate and the Okhotsk Plate ruptured at the bottom of the Japan Trench, as the Pacific Plate subducted (thrust under) the Okhotsk Plate. This sudden release of energy and deformation of the seafloor triggered a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and a fast-moving tsunami that battered northern Honshu Island with waves up to 10m (33 ft). The epicenter was located 130 km (81 mi) off the coast at a relatively shallow depth of 24km (15 mi).

The earthquake and tsunami devastated Sendai and other cities and villages along the northeastern Honshu coast. It is estimated that more than 10,000 have died, many more thousands are injured and missing, and many more thousands homeless. The financial loss is thought to be in excess of US$100 billion. An added complication is the damage sustained by three nuclear reactors along that part of the coast. Measurable radiation was discharged into the atmosphere as a result of explosions in two of the reactors, and residents have been evacuated in a 20km (12 mi) radius. Meltdown is considered a possibility. People all over the world are mourning with the people of Japan, and many governments have come forth with offers of aid and financial assistance.

Ring of Fire. The Japan Trench is part of the Pacific Ring of Fire, the series of connecting fault lines, volcanic arcs, and undersea trenches that start in New Zealand and follow the Pacific Rim around Australia, up through Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan, the Aleutian Islands, and down the coasts of North America and South America to Tierra del Fuego. The Ring of Fire marks the boundary of the Pacific Plate and the continental plates of the various land masses around the Pacific Basin. The Pacific Plate is moving north at a rate of between 4 cm (1.4 in) and 10 cm (3.5 in) a year, depending on location, exerting constant pressure on the slower and opposite-moving continental plates. Stress builds up over hundreds of years until a section of the fault line ruptures. Energy released by the sudden earth movement can produce extremely powerful earthquakes and tsunamis. In the case of the March 11 Sendai earthquake, in a period of 6 minutes the Okhotsk Plate moved 2.4m (7.9 ft) to the west, while a 500km (310 mi) section of the Pacific Plate thrust eastward under the Okhotsk Plate by an estimated 40m (130 ft). At the same time, that area of the coastline dropped .6m (2 ft).

Can it happen to you? People who live in other countries on the Pacific Rim are no doubt wondering if such a catastrophic event can happen to them. In the past 7 years, earthquakes and tsunamis have caused significant loss of life in 4 other Ring of Fire countries. In Dec. 2004, a 9.1 earthquake struck in the Indian Ocean off the island of Sumatra, triggering a deadly tsunami. More than 200,000 people died in Indonesia, Thailand, and other countries bordering the Indian Ocean. In Sept. 2009, an 8.3 earthquake in the Tonga Trench started a tsunami that took 119 lives in Samoa, American Samoa, and Tonga. In February 2010, an 8.8 earthquake in the Chile Trench sent a tsunami sweeping into villages along the Chilean coast, killing 480. In February 2011, a 6.3 earthquake demolished the center of Christchurch, New Zealand, killing 165.

US West Coast. Seismologists have been speculating that the next major undersea earthquake and tsunami of magnitude 9.0 or greater could very well happen on the Cascadia Subduction Zone which runs undersea along the coast of Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. The last major event on the Cascadia was a Magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami that struck that part of the North American coast in 1700. The area was not populated by Europeans at the time and no eyewitness accounts of the event were recorded. However, damage to trees many miles inland have been dated to match the 1700 event; and records in Japan indicate the tsunami travelled across the Pacific Ocean, damaging villages and taking lives there. Geologic records show that over the eons, the Cascadia has had a major slippage every 300 to 600 years. If a 9.0 or greater earthquake on the Cascadia were to occur today at a shallow depth within a few miles of the coast, destruction and loss of life in Pacific Northwest communities would be severe.

Even though there are identified areas where fault line stress is at or near the rupture point, there is no way to tell in advance where the next major earthquake, and associated tsunami, perhaps, will happen. If you live in an earthquake or tsunami prone area, the best advice is found in that old boy scout motto: Be Prepared.

Filed Under: Tsunami and Natural Disaster Info Tagged With: disaster, earthquake, japan, nuclear

Is Extreme Weather Becoming the Norm?

February 5, 2011 By Gordon Leave a Comment

Within the 8-month period June, 2010 to January, 2011, planet earth experienced one of the worst droughts in history and one of the worst periods of flooding in history.

The Russian Drought. Starting in June, 2010, what meteorologists call an anticyclone blocking high moved in over Russia, Ukraine, and the Baltic States, blocking the normal westerly flow of wind over that vast area. The stubborn high pressure ridge locked in and stayed until August, bringing weeks of the hottest and driest weather the region had ever known. And the most destructive.

Temperatures during the period ranged from 35C (95F) to 44C Z(108F), a new record for highest temperature ever recorded in Russia. On average, the weather was 7C (12.6F) hotter than normal. There was no rain, no relief. The heat continued day after day for more than 2 months.

Forest fires and peat bog fires began burning in July, creating a thick smoky smog that hung in the air for weeks, sickening millions of people. Carbon monoxide levels in Moscow were 4 times higher than normal. Visibility in Moscow was reduced to 300m (980 ft). A satellite image showed the smoke cloud covering Western Russia at a height of 12km (40,000ft), and 2,980km (1,850 mi) wide.

It is estimated that 56,000 people died from the effects of the heat wave and the smog blanket. The economic harm to Russia in agricultural losses, healthcare costs, and infrastructure damage exceeded fifteen billion in US dollars.

The Australian Floods. A few months later, in December, 2010 and January, 2011, a perfect storm of climate events produced record flooding in the state of Queensland in northeast Australia.

It started with the onset of the La Nina oscillation cycle during which the ocean in the tropical eastern Pacific along the South American coast turns colder, and the water in the tropical western Pacific around Australia and Indonesia turns warmer. In this case, the ocean temperature along the South American Pacific Coast dropped 4C (7.2F), and the ocean temperature around northern Australia rose 1.5C (2.7F).

The increase in ocean temperature was higher than the normal La Nina increase, attributed in part to global warming. In the last 50 years, earth’s average temperature has risen by .75C (1.3F). In Chile and Peru, less moisture rose from the cooler sea, bringing extended dry weather to that region. A surplus of moisture rose from the warmer Australian waters to form denser rain clouds and heavier rain.

The next event was the arrival of the seasonal monsoon trough, when the rain belt sweeps down out of China, wraps around Borneo, and blows across Northern Australia in a westerly direction, a reversal of normal wind patterns. Moisture rising from the warmer ocean water made 2010 one of the wettest monsoon seasons and one of the wettest springs in Queensland’s history, saturating the ground prior to the arrival of the December storms.

The third event, Tropical Cyclone Tasha, swept into Queensland on December 24, at the same time the monsoon was delivering its heaviest rainfall. That powerful combination hammered northeast Australia with record amounts of rain. December, 2010, was Queensland’s wettest December on record. For a 3-week period, Queensland’s many rivers continued rising, overflowed their banks, and inundated an area the size of France and Germany combined. The Fitzroy River’s flood level peaked at 15.36m (50.4ft) and the Burnett River peaked at 18.25m (59.9ft).

35 people died in the flooding and 9 are missing. Over 200,000 people were evacuated when floodwaters threatened their homes. More than 70 towns and cities sustained flood damage, and thousands of kilometers of highway were damaged. It is estimated that it will cost the Australian government A$30 billion in infrastructure repair and lost revenue. This estimate will probably rise when the damage sustained from the Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Yani is added in.

Climate scientists have been predicting that, as global warming continues, extreme events of this kind will become more common. Rains will be wetter, droughts will be hotter and last longer. Whether the cause can be attributed to global warming or a natural climate cycle or both, it appears that extreme weather events are more and more becoming the norm rather than the exception.

Filed Under: Tsunami and Natural Disaster Info Tagged With: extreme weather

When Hillsides Collapse, Disaster Follows

January 4, 2011 By Gordon Leave a Comment

The term “Natural Disaster” leads most people to think first of highly dramatic events such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis. But it turns out that landslides and mudslides, though seldom in the headlines, are among the world’s most costly natural disasters in lost life and property, and they occur many times a year in most countries around the world.

In 2010 alone, more than 4,000 people lost their lives in landslides in Uganda, Brazil, China, Colombia, Guatemala, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Mexico, and other parts of the world. The costs in property loss, evacuations, and restoration amount to many billions of dollars a year. These landslides followed periods of prolonged or heavy rain that saturated and destabilized the hillside, causing a portion of it to detach and slide. Earthquakes and volcanoes also produce landslides that take lives, but those fatalities are attributed to the major causal event, not to the landslides.

Landslides don’t often make the major headlines because the death toll per event is usually in the hundreds instead of the thousands as is often the case in a major earthquake, volcano, or tsunami. And 2010 was not an unusual year in terms of landslide damage. Landslides go on month after month, year after year, wherever and whenever heavy rain penetrates susceptible soil on an incline.

What puts the slide in landslide? There are many underlying causes. Some are natural and some are manmade. Natural hillsides are inherently stable. Some of the things that destabilize them and make them vulnerable to collapse are:

Removal of Vegetation. Vegetation absorbs water and keeps a hillside dry. The root systems tend to strengthen and stabilize the ground. A forest fire caused by lightning would be a natural cause of vegetation removal. Clear-cutting of timber on that slope would be a manmade cause. Both natural and manmade causes weaken the soil and make it susceptible to failure.

Addition of Moisture. Heavy rain or heavy snowfall can put hillsides at risk. Most soils transform into mud when saturated with water. Water infusion also reduces the friction between soil particles. Without enough friction to hold the soil in place, a heavy mass of mud can detach from the hillside and slide to the bottom.

Addition of weight. Heavy rainfall or snowfall is also nature’s way of adding weight to a slope. Grading for building pads and adding fill is a manmade way of adding weight. Both can contribute to a landslide when other factors are in place.

Other Human Factors. Road building on a slope, and cultivating and irrigating a slope for farming, can loosen and destabilize the hillside soil.

Here a few notable landslide examples:

Guwahati, Assam, India – 1948 – 500 died in a landslide following a heavy rain.

Wayakama Prefecture, Japan – 1953 – 1,046 died in landslides after typhoon rains.

Longarone, Italy – 1963 – 2,000 died after heavy rains and failure of a check dam caused heavy debris flow into valley villages.

Vargas, Venezuela – 1999 – 30,000 died after days of torrential rains brought slippage to steep hillsides above many towns and villages in Vargas state. One area of homes was buried under 3 meters (10 ft) of mud. Whole villages completely disappeared.

Southern Leyte, Philippine Islands – 2006 – 1,126 died when a hillside collapsed after 10 days of heavy rain. The resulting debris avalanche buried a village including 240 children in the local school.

Taiwan – 2009 – 600 died when a typhoon dumped 3 meters (100 in) of rain in 24 hours, triggering mudslides that destroyed villages in mountainous areas of the island.

Gansu Province, China – 2010 – 1,700 died after days of heavy rains caused mudslides that destroyed villages in the mountains and deep valleys of this area of central China.

In large metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle where homes have been built on or below hillsides, mitigation measures have helped to reduce landslide damage but have not eliminated it. Mitigation measures include check dams to reduce runoff, hillside drainage systems, retaining walls, and hillside reinforcement. Even with all these mitigation measures, almost every year after a rainy period, hillsides still slide and homes are lost.

Wherever one finds a combination of a steep slope and heavy rain, landslides and mudslides will often happen. They occur hundreds of times a year all over the world. As long as people build homes on and below hillsides and mountainsides, there will be casualties and damage to property.

Filed Under: Tsunami and Natural Disaster Info Tagged With: landslides, mudflow, mudslides

Population Explosion: Looming Crisis?

November 29, 2010 By Gordon Leave a Comment

World population, now estimated at 6.8 billion, is projected to balloon to 9.7 billion by 2050. Can food supply keep pace with the expanding population, and will there be enough water to go around? Or are we approaching a point at which the earth is no longer able to sustain the people living on it?

As population continues to increase, the amount of arable land in the world is declining due to desertification, erosion, deforestation, and urban sprawl. In many parts of the world, the productivity of the land is also declining, because of depletion of nutrients in the soil from overuse. To balance that, higher-yield farming techniques and genetically engineered crops can increase food production despite the loss of farming acreage. However, will there be enough increased production to feed an ever expanding world population?

Other factors that will influence available food production are (1) Global Warming. Rising temperatures are expected to bring drought to the tropics and subtropics and floods to other parts of the world, both of which will bring new challenges to farming in those areas. (2) Energy Supply. As oil production declines, the cost of energy to run pumps, farm machinery, and to manufacture fertilizer will rise. (3) Transportation Costs. The cost of transporting food to market and shipping food from areas of high production such as the U.S., Australia, and Argentina to areas of low production and great need such as Africa and the Middle East will increase. In the last 10 years, world wheat prices have risen more than 250%.

Fresh water is a finite resource. There is only so much of it, and that won’t change. As world population grows, amount of water per person will decline accordingly. A UNESCO study shows that 97.5% of earth’s water is salt water and only 2.5% fresh water. Of that, 66% is frozen in glaciers and polar icecaps. An estimated 69% of available fresh water is used for irrigating crops, 22% for industrial production, and 8% for household use, including bathing, sanitation, cooking, and gardening.

Some of the worldwide problems facing water supply are (1) Depletion of Aquifers. Ground water is being pumped out far faster than nature replaces it. If this unsustainable rate of withdrawal is not corrected, aquifers eventually will be pumped dry. In coastal areas, ground water depletion is allowing sea water to intrude into the water supply. (2) Global Warming. Higher temperatures will increase water supply evaporation. Rapid glacier and ice cap melt means more fresh water will be lost to the sea. As high mountain glaciers recede, annual melt flow to the headwaters of major river systems will gradually subside. Once the glaciers in the Himalayas and Alps are gone, important river systems of Asia and Europe could go dry. (3) Pollution. Increase in population brings about like increases in waste creation and waste disposal. In many parts of the world, raw sewage is still dumped into oceans and lakes and rivers, threatening water quality and promoting the spread of waterborne diseases. Chemical waste dumped by governments and industry, urban storm runoff, and agricultural runoff including chemical fertilizer waste, all compound the water quality problem.

Does the world community have the will and the resources to meet these challenges? It may take heavy investment in sanitation infrastructure and perhaps an acceptance of living with less to pull us through. All through history, people have been able to respond to crises and make the adjustments needed to keep the planet a viable place to live. As population growth threatens our ability to cope, let us hope we can rise to the occasion once again.

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Rogue Waves: Mystery Monsters of the Sea

September 27, 2010 By Gordon Leave a Comment

In April, 1966, on a North Atlantic crossing to New York, the 46,000-ton Italian ocean liner Michelangelo was struck by an 80-ft. (25m) wave that collapsed the ship’s forward superstructure, smashed windows, killed two passengers and a crewman, and injured 50.

During World War II, in December, 1942, RMS Queen Mary was transporting 16,000 American troops to Europe. As Queen Mary entered the North Atlantic, a 92-ft (28m) wave came out of nowhere and broadsided the huge 1,000-ft ocean liner, knocking the ship into a 52- degree list. Had it listed another 3 degrees, it would have capsized, taking the 16,000 troops and the crew to the bottom of the Atlantic. Fortunately, it gradually righted and sailed back to port for repairs. There was no loss of life.

On March 2, 2001, the Caledonian Star was crossing the South Atlantic with several hundred tourists aboard. At 5 a.m., a 98-ft (30m) wave suddenly smashed into the ship, flooding the bridge and destroying all navigation and communications equipment. Luckily, the ship’s engines continued to run and it was able to make it back to port with everyone still safely aboard.

The German cargo ship MS Munchen (Munich), sailing between Bremerhaven and Charleston, South Carolina, was not so lucky. On the night of December 13, 1978, the relatively new ship built to withstand extreme conditions, went down with all hands. Debris found by search vessels revealed that the Munchen was struck by a wave at least 66 ft (20m) high, disabling the ship. Evidence indicated the freighter drifted for 3 days before capsizing and sinking. All communications equipment had been knocked out. After the Munchen was lost, the bridges on new cargo ships were located on the stern of the ship instead of forward.

These are just three examples of the hundreds of reports of gigantic freak waves sinking or damaging ships. What are these strange monster waves that appear without warning and overwhelm large oceangoing vessels?

They are called rogue waves and seem to occur in deep water, often where strong winds and fast currents converge. Until very recently, the idea of rogue waves was thought to be maritime folklore, tall tales told by sailors home from the sea. Scientists began to believe in their existence in 1995 when the Daupner drilling platform in the North Sea for the first time scientifically recorded with a laser sensor an 84-ft (25.6m) wave that struck the rig on a clear New Year’s Day. The platform sustained minor damage, but survived. Unlike a tsunami, which is caused by an undersea earthquake and sudden deformation of the ocean floor, a rogue wave is a product of wind and ocean current conditions on the ocean’s surface.

In 2000, European Space Agency scientists launched Project MaxWave, using satellite data to search for and confirm the existence of rogue waves. They found that 10-story waves are real and occur rarely but regularly in deep oceans throughout the world. Many strike during heavy storms, but these mountain-like waves can also appear suddenly on a clear day in calm conditions. Rogue waves are consistently described by eyewitnesses as a vertical wall of water up to 100 ft (30m) high, preceded by a trough so deep it looks like a hole in the sea.

The weight and pressure per square inch (kilopascal) of a wave of this magnitude breaking over a ship is so extreme that few vessels can survive a direct hit without sinking or sustaining great damage.

Scientists have been designing computer models and laboratory experiments to research the origin and dynamics of rogue waves, but so far do not agree on the exact sets of conditions that create them. Another scientific group is making a chart of when and where rogue waves occur so that ships can be warned to avoid areas where these monster waves are most likely to appear.

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Vanishing Islands in a Rising Sea

July 26, 2010 By Gordon 1 Comment

The evacuation of all 2,000 inhabitants of Cataret Island marked the beginning of the end for many low-lying atolls in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Rising sea levels have flooded the food and fresh water sources on this small island off Papua, New Guinea, and made it necessary to relocate the inhabitants to nearby Bougainville.

According to IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, sea levels worldwide will rise up to 88 cm (34.6 in.) by the end of this century. Other studies indicate the rise could be lower or much higher than that, depending on the pace of global warming.

A 3 ft (1 m) sea level rise threatens the existence of many island nations in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Many of these coral atolls are only 6 or 7 ft (2m) above sea level. While a 3 ft (1m) rise in the sea would not totally submerge every one of these islands, many of them would become uninhabitable due to sea water intrusion into the fresh water aquifer, salt water swamping of coconut and taro fields, washing out of roads, hospitals, and public utilities. Many of these islands are already trying to cope with these destructive changes. In addition to Cataret, several other low islands are making plans to relocate their populations. New Zealand has agreed to accept refugees from a small island in the Vanuatu group that is currently undergoing flooding from storms and a rising sea level, and may soon have to be evacuated.

Among the islands under threat of submersion by the end of this century are the Maldives in the Indian Ocean, hundreds of atolls in the Pacific around New Guinea, the Cook Islands, Fiji Islands, Solomon Islands, and Marshal Islands. Kiribati, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu all have surrounding atolls that have been partially or completely submerged by rising seas. Low-lying cities such as Shanghai, only 6 ft (2m) above sea level, and the heavily populated coast of Bangladesh that lies only a few feet above sea level, will also be adversely affected by the steady encroachment of the sea. Sea water intrusion into Asian rice paddies in fresh water wetlands will threaten the food supply in that part of the world.

World sea level has risen 8 inches (20cm) in the past century, but global warming has greatly accelerated the process in the past 20 years. Projected air temperature increases for the 21^st century range from 2.0 to 11.5 degrees F (1.1 to 6.4 degrees C). NASA satellite imaging shows that the polar ice cap is melting at the rate of 9% per decade. The Greenland Ice Sheet is disappearing equally fast, and almost all the glaciers of the world are in retreat.

Rising sea levels are caused by two main factors: (1) melt water from ice caps, ice sheets, and glaciers, and (2) thermal expansion of the sea water (as water gets warmer, it expands and takes up more space). Both ice melt and thermal expansion are products of global warming. Scientists estimate that melt water from ice caps, ice sheets, and glaciers contribute approximately 25% to the current increase in ocean volume, while thermal expansion is responsible for 50%. Exactly what makes up the remaining 25% contribution is not clearly understood. But to sum up, as air temperature rises due to global warming, ocean temperatures go up, ocean volume increases, and the sea level continues to rise.

Most of the world’s seacoast cities, ports, and recreation areas will eventually be overtaken by rising sea levels. New York, New Orleans, Miami, London, Amsterdam, and Venice are among world cities that may be working hard to “hold back the sea” in the not too far distant future.

Filed Under: Tsunami and Natural Disaster Info Tagged With: disappear, islands, submerged, vanish

Can You Outrun a Tsunami?

September 8, 2008 By Gordon Leave a Comment

Try to imagine a solid block of ocean hundreds of miles long, 3 miles deep, and as wide as the coastline, coming toward you at 500 to 600 miles an hour. That describes a tsunami in deep water racing toward land. A tsunami’s speed slows as it encounters the coastline but the total water mass is still moving at 20 to 25 mph just before surging ashore. Maybe a world class distance runner who runs a 4- minute mile can stay ahead of an oncoming tsunami, but most of us are not world class runners. If it comes down to a race, the tsunami will win and the runner will lose almost every time. A tsunami rolling onshore is massive, powerful, and destroys everything in its path.

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