2010 | Tsunami A Novel & Red Sky | Novels by Gordon Gumpertz

Population Explosion: Looming Crisis?

November 29, 2010 By Gordon Leave a Comment

World population, now estimated at 6.8 billion, is projected to balloon to 9.7 billion by 2050. Can food supply keep pace with the expanding population, and will there be enough water to go around? Or are we approaching a point at which the earth is no longer able to sustain the people living on it?

As population continues to increase, the amount of arable land in the world is declining due to desertification, erosion, deforestation, and urban sprawl. In many parts of the world, the productivity of the land is also declining, because of depletion of nutrients in the soil from overuse. To balance that, higher-yield farming techniques and genetically engineered crops can increase food production despite the loss of farming acreage. However, will there be enough increased production to feed an ever expanding world population?

Other factors that will influence available food production are (1) Global Warming. Rising temperatures are expected to bring drought to the tropics and subtropics and floods to other parts of the world, both of which will bring new challenges to farming in those areas. (2) Energy Supply. As oil production declines, the cost of energy to run pumps, farm machinery, and to manufacture fertilizer will rise. (3) Transportation Costs. The cost of transporting food to market and shipping food from areas of high production such as the U.S., Australia, and Argentina to areas of low production and great need such as Africa and the Middle East will increase. In the last 10 years, world wheat prices have risen more than 250%.

Fresh water is a finite resource. There is only so much of it, and that won’t change. As world population grows, amount of water per person will decline accordingly. A UNESCO study shows that 97.5% of earth’s water is salt water and only 2.5% fresh water. Of that, 66% is frozen in glaciers and polar icecaps. An estimated 69% of available fresh water is used for irrigating crops, 22% for industrial production, and 8% for household use, including bathing, sanitation, cooking, and gardening.

Some of the worldwide problems facing water supply are (1) Depletion of Aquifers. Ground water is being pumped out far faster than nature replaces it. If this unsustainable rate of withdrawal is not corrected, aquifers eventually will be pumped dry. In coastal areas, ground water depletion is allowing sea water to intrude into the water supply. (2) Global Warming. Higher temperatures will increase water supply evaporation. Rapid glacier and ice cap melt means more fresh water will be lost to the sea. As high mountain glaciers recede, annual melt flow to the headwaters of major river systems will gradually subside. Once the glaciers in the Himalayas and Alps are gone, important river systems of Asia and Europe could go dry. (3) Pollution. Increase in population brings about like increases in waste creation and waste disposal. In many parts of the world, raw sewage is still dumped into oceans and lakes and rivers, threatening water quality and promoting the spread of waterborne diseases. Chemical waste dumped by governments and industry, urban storm runoff, and agricultural runoff including chemical fertilizer waste, all compound the water quality problem.

Does the world community have the will and the resources to meet these challenges? It may take heavy investment in sanitation infrastructure and perhaps an acceptance of living with less to pull us through. All through history, people have been able to respond to crises and make the adjustments needed to keep the planet a viable place to live. As population growth threatens our ability to cope, let us hope we can rise to the occasion once again.

Filed Under: Tsunami and Natural Disaster Info Tagged With: population crisis

Rogue Waves: Mystery Monsters of the Sea

September 27, 2010 By Gordon Leave a Comment

In April, 1966, on a North Atlantic crossing to New York, the 46,000-ton Italian ocean liner Michelangelo was struck by an 80-ft. (25m) wave that collapsed the ship’s forward superstructure, smashed windows, killed two passengers and a crewman, and injured 50.

During World War II, in December, 1942, RMS Queen Mary was transporting 16,000 American troops to Europe. As Queen Mary entered the North Atlantic, a 92-ft (28m) wave came out of nowhere and broadsided the huge 1,000-ft ocean liner, knocking the ship into a 52- degree list. Had it listed another 3 degrees, it would have capsized, taking the 16,000 troops and the crew to the bottom of the Atlantic. Fortunately, it gradually righted and sailed back to port for repairs. There was no loss of life.

On March 2, 2001, the Caledonian Star was crossing the South Atlantic with several hundred tourists aboard. At 5 a.m., a 98-ft (30m) wave suddenly smashed into the ship, flooding the bridge and destroying all navigation and communications equipment. Luckily, the ship’s engines continued to run and it was able to make it back to port with everyone still safely aboard.

The German cargo ship MS Munchen (Munich), sailing between Bremerhaven and Charleston, South Carolina, was not so lucky. On the night of December 13, 1978, the relatively new ship built to withstand extreme conditions, went down with all hands. Debris found by search vessels revealed that the Munchen was struck by a wave at least 66 ft (20m) high, disabling the ship. Evidence indicated the freighter drifted for 3 days before capsizing and sinking. All communications equipment had been knocked out. After the Munchen was lost, the bridges on new cargo ships were located on the stern of the ship instead of forward.

These are just three examples of the hundreds of reports of gigantic freak waves sinking or damaging ships. What are these strange monster waves that appear without warning and overwhelm large oceangoing vessels?

They are called rogue waves and seem to occur in deep water, often where strong winds and fast currents converge. Until very recently, the idea of rogue waves was thought to be maritime folklore, tall tales told by sailors home from the sea. Scientists began to believe in their existence in 1995 when the Daupner drilling platform in the North Sea for the first time scientifically recorded with a laser sensor an 84-ft (25.6m) wave that struck the rig on a clear New Year’s Day. The platform sustained minor damage, but survived. Unlike a tsunami, which is caused by an undersea earthquake and sudden deformation of the ocean floor, a rogue wave is a product of wind and ocean current conditions on the ocean’s surface.

In 2000, European Space Agency scientists launched Project MaxWave, using satellite data to search for and confirm the existence of rogue waves. They found that 10-story waves are real and occur rarely but regularly in deep oceans throughout the world. Many strike during heavy storms, but these mountain-like waves can also appear suddenly on a clear day in calm conditions. Rogue waves are consistently described by eyewitnesses as a vertical wall of water up to 100 ft (30m) high, preceded by a trough so deep it looks like a hole in the sea.

The weight and pressure per square inch (kilopascal) of a wave of this magnitude breaking over a ship is so extreme that few vessels can survive a direct hit without sinking or sustaining great damage.

Scientists have been designing computer models and laboratory experiments to research the origin and dynamics of rogue waves, but so far do not agree on the exact sets of conditions that create them. Another scientific group is making a chart of when and where rogue waves occur so that ships can be warned to avoid areas where these monster waves are most likely to appear.

Vanishing Islands in a Rising Sea

July 26, 2010 By Gordon 1 Comment

The evacuation of all 2,000 inhabitants of Cataret Island marked the beginning of the end for many low-lying atolls in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Rising sea levels have flooded the food and fresh water sources on this small island off Papua, New Guinea, and made it necessary to relocate the inhabitants to nearby Bougainville.

According to IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, sea levels worldwide will rise up to 88 cm (34.6 in.) by the end of this century. Other studies indicate the rise could be lower or much higher than that, depending on the pace of global warming.

A 3 ft (1 m) sea level rise threatens the existence of many island nations in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Many of these coral atolls are only 6 or 7 ft (2m) above sea level. While a 3 ft (1m) rise in the sea would not totally submerge every one of these islands, many of them would become uninhabitable due to sea water intrusion into the fresh water aquifer, salt water swamping of coconut and taro fields, washing out of roads, hospitals, and public utilities. Many of these islands are already trying to cope with these destructive changes. In addition to Cataret, several other low islands are making plans to relocate their populations. New Zealand has agreed to accept refugees from a small island in the Vanuatu group that is currently undergoing flooding from storms and a rising sea level, and may soon have to be evacuated.

Among the islands under threat of submersion by the end of this century are the Maldives in the Indian Ocean, hundreds of atolls in the Pacific around New Guinea, the Cook Islands, Fiji Islands, Solomon Islands, and Marshal Islands. Kiribati, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu all have surrounding atolls that have been partially or completely submerged by rising seas. Low-lying cities such as Shanghai, only 6 ft (2m) above sea level, and the heavily populated coast of Bangladesh that lies only a few feet above sea level, will also be adversely affected by the steady encroachment of the sea. Sea water intrusion into Asian rice paddies in fresh water wetlands will threaten the food supply in that part of the world.

World sea level has risen 8 inches (20cm) in the past century, but global warming has greatly accelerated the process in the past 20 years. Projected air temperature increases for the 21^st century range from 2.0 to 11.5 degrees F (1.1 to 6.4 degrees C). NASA satellite imaging shows that the polar ice cap is melting at the rate of 9% per decade. The Greenland Ice Sheet is disappearing equally fast, and almost all the glaciers of the world are in retreat.

Rising sea levels are caused by two main factors: (1) melt water from ice caps, ice sheets, and glaciers, and (2) thermal expansion of the sea water (as water gets warmer, it expands and takes up more space). Both ice melt and thermal expansion are products of global warming. Scientists estimate that melt water from ice caps, ice sheets, and glaciers contribute approximately 25% to the current increase in ocean volume, while thermal expansion is responsible for 50%. Exactly what makes up the remaining 25% contribution is not clearly understood. But to sum up, as air temperature rises due to global warming, ocean temperatures go up, ocean volume increases, and the sea level continues to rise.

Most of the world’s seacoast cities, ports, and recreation areas will eventually be overtaken by rising sea levels. New York, New Orleans, Miami, London, Amsterdam, and Venice are among world cities that may be working hard to “hold back the sea” in the not too far distant future.