Climate Change Speeding Up

December 22, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Three recent studies indicate that climate change is here to stay, it is accelerating, and it will bring major ecological changes to our world.

Global emissions of carbon dioxide rose 5.9% in 2010, the largest year-to-year jump since the industrial revolution began more than 200 years ago. This information is based on a study released in December, 2011, by the Global Carbon Project, an international collaboration of scientists tracking trends in this field. The burning of coal represented more than half of the annual emissions. In 2010, the combustion of fossil fuels (coal and oil) sent 9 billion tons of carbon into earth’s atmosphere.

The United States, which for years produced more CO2 than any other country, now falls into second place behind China, although the U.S. still leads in per capita emissions. In 2010, total carbon emissions in the U.S. were 1.5 billion tons, while China pumped 2.2 billion tons into the air. Developing countries including China and India now account for 57% of all carbon emissions. The study concludes that this trend of ever-rising carbon emissions will make it difficult if not impossible to hold back severe climate change in coming decades.

What are some of the immediate and long-term effects of this trend?

 A December,2011, report based on a climate change computer model developed by researchers at NASA’s JPL and Caltech in Pasadena indicates that by the end of the 21st Century, “… global climate change will modify plant communities covering almost half the earth’s surface.” As earth’s climate warms, animal and plant species in temperate zones will migrate toward the polar regions or to higher elevations. These migrations will pit the migrating species against the species already inhabiting the cooler zones for survival.  Many presently existing species will disappear.

As the report states, “The model projections paint a portrait of increasing ecological change and stress in earth’s biosphere, with many plant and animal species facing increasing competition for survival … Most of earth’s land that is not covered by ice or desert is expected to undergo at least a 30% change in plant cover – changes that will require humans and animals to adapt and often relocate.”

Some areas of the world will change more than others. Among the areas projected to undergo the greatest degree of change are regions of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, equatorial east Africa, Madagascar, the Mediterranean, southern South America, and the Great Lakes and Great Plains areas of North America. To quote the report, “The largest areas of ecological sensitivity and biome changes are found in areas with the most dramatic climate change.” This will be particularly true in North America high altitudes and along the borders of northern forests.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, which was used in the NASA simulation, projects greenhouse gas levels will double, and global temperature will increase 3.6 to 7.2°F (2 to 4°C) by 2100, the same temperature range of warming that occurred following the last Glacial Maximum nearly 20,000 years ago, but 100 times faster. The report paints a picture of a much warmer planet with wet areas being much wetter, and dry areas being much drier.

One sign of things to come is the amazing amount of ice melt being experienced in Greenland, most of which lies within the Arctic Circle. A team of scientists from Ohio State University reported that a network of 50 GPS stations shows that Greenland is rising as the ice sheets that covered this land mass for thousands of years continue to melt at a surprisingly rapid rate. It is estimated that in the year 2010 alone, Greenland lost 100 billion tons of ice through rapid melting. Some areas of southern Greenland rose more than 2 inches (6cm) as the weight of the ice decreased. The rapid ice melt water flows into the ocean, contributing to the rise in sea levels and posing a growing threat to coastal communities and low-lying islands around the world.

There seems to be agreement among leading scientists that human activity is speeding up the natural global warming cycle. To quote the NASA report, “The 2010 emissions increase solidified a trend of ever-rising emissions that scientists fear will make it difficult, if not impossible, to forestall severe climate change in coming decades.” The United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Durban, South Africa, in early December, 2011, attended by representatives of 190 nations, produced a ray of light in the battle to slow the pace of carbon emissions. For the first time, China, India, and the United States agreed to abide by a new emissions reduction treaty to be worked out and signed by 2015, and to go into effect by 2020. Let’s hope the amount of emissions cutback eventually agreed on will be enough to make a difference. Time will tell.

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2011 U.S. Natural Disaster Tab: $53 Billion

November 28, 2011 By Leave a Comment

In its first 10 months, 2011 has already set a new United States record for number of natural disasters that cost at least one billion dollars in property damage. 14 such events occurred in 2011, compared to 9 in the full year of 2008, the next highest year.

2011 saw natural disasters strike in many countries throughout the world. The
earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the earthquakes in Turkey, the drought in
China, and the famine in Africa all took a heavy toll in both lives lost and
property damage. A leading reinsurer reports worldwide economic loss from
natural disasters had already exceeded $265 billion as of the end of June, with
a half year still to go. That topped the losses for the entire year of 2005,
the highest loss year prior to 2011. Because final statistics for many of these
world disasters have not yet been published, this article will focus only on
the natural disasters that occurred in the United States during the first ten
months of 2011.

According to data recently published by the National Climatic Data Center, a division of NOAA, 14 natural disasters causing at least $1 billion each in property loss struck the  U.S. between January and October of this year. The damage per event ranged from $1 billion plus for Tropical Storm Lee in September, to $26 billion for the destruction inflicted by the severe
thunderstorms and killer tornadoes that ravaged the southeast and Midwest in
April and May.

Loss of life, of course, is the most tragic part of any natural disaster. Tuscaloosa
and Joplin suffered especially hard losses. In the first 10 months of 2011, 675
deaths were attributed to natural disasters in the United States. It is hoped
that in coming years, lives will be saved by better disaster mitigation
planning. That would include strengthening building codes in disaster-prone
areas, and restricting building on land susceptible to natural disasters such
as flood plains and hillsides. Planning ahead to lower natural disaster losses
is a priority of several United Nations agencies.

Here are the 14 natural disasters totaling $56.3 billion from January to October, 2011:
Groundhog Day blizzard – February 2. Blizzard conditions with winds up to 60 mph (100kph) and freezing temperatures swept across a wide swath of the U.S. from Albuquerque to New York City. Chicago was especially hard hit with 2 ft (60cm) of snow in 24 hours, closing O’Hare Airport and nearly paralyzing the city. The storm caused 36 deaths, and storm damage was estimated at $3.9 billion.

Derecho wind storms – April 4 and 5. A series of 40 mph (70kph) wind storms
associated with a violent squall line moved the through the Midwest and onto
the east coast. These were called derecho winds, a term meaning high winds that blow steadily in one direction for prolonged periods. The same storm spawned tornadoes in Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi. The death toll was 9. Damage costs were $2.5 billion.

Iowa windstorms and tornadoes – April 8 to 11. A powerful storm over the Midwest set off a series of tornadoes. The strongest of these was a huge ¾ mile (1.2km) wide funnel that struck Mapleton, Iowa, on April 9, leaving a 3.5 mile (6km) trail of total destruction. Luckily, no deaths were reported from this storm, but storm damage reached $2.25 billion.

Oklahoma to North Carolina tornadoes – April 14 to 16. A severe Midwest storm created a band of strong tornadoes that moved across 16 states from Oklahoma to the east coast. The area around Raleigh, North Carolina, was especially hard hit by a tornado with funnel speeds exceeding 165 mph (275kph). 45 people died in the chain of storms. Damages totaled $2 billion.

Ohio tornadoes – April 19 to 21. A heavy Midwest storm produced 61 tornadoes over a 3-day period. On April 20, a tornado ripped through the town of Oregon, Ohio, leaving heavy damage but no injuries or fatalities. Losses totaled $1 billion.

Super Tornado Outbreak– April 25 to 30. One of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in U.S. history struck the southeastern states during this 6-day period. On April 27, 188 tornadoes touched down in Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Georgia, and Virginia, 5 of them rated EF5 with funnel wind speeds exceeding 200 mph (340kph). 343 people died, 239 of those  in Alabama, where the university city of Tuscaloosa was especially hard hit. Damages totaled $9 billion.

Missouri & Oklahoma tornadoes – May 22 to 24. On May 22, a multiple vortex EF5 tornado ripped through Joplin, Missouri with wind speeds peaking at 250 mph (400kph), killing 162 people and destroying a large part of southwest Joplin. Two days later, El Reno, Oklahoma was devastated by one of many tornados that hit the state. 8 people died and over 60 were injured. Damages from the two events: $8 billion.

Illinois severe winds – June 16-22. Strong thunderstorms and EF3 tornadoes hit the upper plains states. Near Chicago, the town of Wheeling, IL sustained heavy damage. No deaths were reported, but damage came to $1.25 billion.

Mississippi River flooding – April and May. Heavy rain from spring storms plus above-average snowmelt sent torrents of water into the Mississippi and its tributaries, causing massive flooding from Illinois to Louisiana. 1 death was attributed to the event. Damages to buildings, infrastructure, and cropland exceeded $5 billion.

Texas drought and wildfires – ongoing. Texas has been locked in a yearlong drought that has done great damage to agriculture, livestock, and the general economy. Wildfires burned 3 million acres across the state. 91% of the state has been declared in extreme or exceptional drought by the USDA. Damages so far total $5.2 billion.

Missouri River & Souris River floods – spring & summer. The Missouri River and its tributaries started cresting and overflowing their banks in June, causing bridge and highway closings, crop losses, and evacuations by thousands of people in 7 Upper Midwest states. The flooding persisted through much of the summer. In North Dakota, the Souris River crested at a hundred-year high in late June, flooding parts of Minot. 11,000 people had to be evacuated. Losses for both events came to $2 billion. 5 lives were lost.

Hurricane Irene – August 26 to 28.
Irene hit North Carolina on Aug. 27 with 85 mph (140kph) winds, moved off the coast, came ashore again in Long Island as a 65 mph (108kph) tropical storm. The storm dropped 8 to 12 inches (30cm) of rain, causing major flooding in several northeastern states. The storm took 46 lives. Wind and flood damage totaled $7.2 billion.

Tropical Storm Lee – September 4 to 8. Lee came ashore in Louisiana with a wind speed of 45 mph (75kph). Wind damage was minor, but this extremely wet storm dropped 10 inches (25cm) of rain on southeastern states. It moved north into Pennsylvania and Western New York where it rained nearly 8 inches (20cm) in 24 hours on ground already saturated by Hurricane Irene. The Susquehanna River rose 20 ft in 24 hours, flooding Binghamton, NY and several Pennsylvania cities. 13 people died. Damages exceeded $1 billion.

Northeast snow storm – October 29 & 30. During this  48-hour period, the biggest October snowstorm in 200 years swept through the northeastern states, with high winds and up to 2.6 feet (76cm) of snow. The freak blizzard knocked out power to 3 million households in New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. Thousands of homes were still without power weeks later. The storm resulted in 27 deaths and more than $3 billion in damage.

Can anything be done tomake natural disasters less destructive? Many places around the world are adopting natural disaster mitigation measures. For example, areas susceptible to heavy earthquake damage, such as Japan and California, have added stringent earthquake safety requirements to their building codes over the past 50 years. All new commercial structures, schools, roads, and bridges have been built to the new specifications, and billions of dollars have been spent retrofitting older schools, commercial buildings, bridges, and freeway overpasses. There are still casualties and property loss when a large earthquake strikes these areas, but the fatalities, injuries, and property damage have been greatly reduced over those that occurred in earlier quakes when unreinforced school and office buildings collapsed, killing and trapping thousands.

If the same principal of requiring safer building codes could be applied to areas that experience frequent hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards, and floods, many lives might be saved and property loss greatly reduced. A recent NOAA climate-change study indicates that future storms will last longer and be much more intense. That seems to make it more urgent than ever to prepare for natural disasters by building storm-resistant structures and building in the right places.

 

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Disasters We Tend to Forget

October 24, 2011 By Leave a Comment

On October 23, 2011, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake hit eastern Turkey killing hundreds, and destroying or damaging thousands of buildings. The quake occurred on the Ercis Fault, the same fault line that produced the 1988 Armenian earthquake that killed 25,000.

The Ercis quake in Turkey is a reminder that natural disasters happen frequently, year after year, and in all parts of the world. A few are covered by major media in great depth and for long follow-up periods, and remain in the public mind for years. But other highly destructive disasters, although reported by the media at the time, are soon forgotten by the public at large.

Among the natural disasters during the last ten years that are most remembered by the public, and were most covered by the media, were: the 2004 Indonesian earthquake and tsunami that killed over 200,000 and flattened villages and vacation resorts on the Indian Ocean shoreline; Hurricane Katrina that flooded New Orleans in 2005, killing 1,800 and costing close to $100 billion in property loss and reconstruction; the Haiti earthquake in 2010 that killed over 300,000; and the Japan earthquake and tsunami of 2011 that damaged nuclear facilities and wiped out coastal villages and cities, while taking 20,000 lives.

Those events received extensive coverage, deservedly so because of the extremely high death toll, the terrible aftermath and mass relocations, and the fact that cameras and eyewitnesses were on hand to record the dramatic and traumatic scenes as they happened.

Also reported  by the media during the past 10 years, but now largely forgotten, were many other natural disasters that took a heavy toll of life and property and had a devastating impact on their local regions. These included:

2003 Iran earthquake. On Dec. 26, 2003, a magnitude 6.6 earthquake nearly
leveled the city of Bam in Southeastern Iran. The quake struck at 5:26 a.m.
local time at a shallow depth of 10k (6.2 mi), and the epicenter was in close
proximity to this city of 100,000. Three quarters of the houses in Bam were
completely destroyed, mainly due to mud brick construction, and another 20%
badly damaged. Only a few buildings remained standing. An estimated 30,000
people died and another 30,000 were injured. In addition, in the greater Bam
region, 100,000 were left homeless in freezing winter weather. Because Tehran
lies on the same major fault line as Bam, the Iranian government, for a time,
considered moving the nation’s capital to a safer location. The Bam Fault is
one of several marking the conjunction of the Arabian and Eurasian tectonic
plates. The Arabian plate is pushing into the Eurasian plate at the rate of 3cm
(1 in) a year, causing a constant buildup of fault line stress.

2005 Kashmir earthquake. In northwest Pakistan, on October 8, 2005, a magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck the Kashmir Valley near the borders of India and Afghanistan. An estimated 86,000 people died in rock slides and collapsed mud brick homes. Hundreds of thousands of homeless had to spend a bitterly cold winter in tent cities hastily provided by international aid. The impacted area was only 100 km (62 mi) from the Pakistan capital Islamabad, and located on the same general fault system as Bam. Even worse, Kashmir is situated at a three-plate junction where the Arabian Plate and the Indian Plate thrust into the giant Eurasian Plate, making the area very unstable. To their credit, the press gave extensive coverage to the international effort that provided over US$5 billion in aid to this ravaged area.

2008 Cyclone Nargis. On May 2, 2008, Tropical Cyclone Nargis hit Burma with sustained winds of 105 mph (165kph), gusting to 135 mph (215kph). 138,000 died, according to official Burmese reports, although an additional 55,000 were reported missing and many other deaths were confirmed in outlying areas. The death toll was considered vastly underreported by the press. There was more media coverage of the Burmese government’s refusal to let relief supplies and aid organizations into the country, than of the devastation caused by the cyclone.

2008 Sichuan Earthquake. 10 days after Cyclone Nargis swept through neighboring Burma, on May 12, 2008, a magnitude 8.0 earthquake struck the Sichuan province of China. The epicenter was 12 mi (19k)deep on the Longmenshan Fault in a mountainous region of Sichuan on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. The quake ruptured 186 miles (300 kilometers) of the fault line and was felt in Shanghai, over 1,000 miles away. This fault line where the Indian and Eurasian Tectonic Plates meet is geologically very active. 68,000 people died in the quake, an additional 18,000 were listed missing, and between 5 and 10 million were left homeless.

2010 Russian Heat Wave. In July, 2010, a massive high pressure ridge called a blocking high settled in for a prolonged stay over Ukraineand the Baltic states, blocking the winds that normally flow in a westerly direction that time of year. The result was the hottest summer in Russian history with temperatures reaching 42°C (108F), plus a summer-long drought, and stubborn wildfires that produced a thick, smoky haze over most of Russia. In Moscow, visibility was limited to a few hundred feet, and throughout Russia millions suffered from the effects of smoke inhalation. Before the summer was over, 56,000 people had died as a direct result of the heat and smog.

Is it the nature of the event itself or the amount of media coverage of the event that causes us to remember some natural disasters and forget others? Do we hear more about disasters that affect us more directly or are closer to home? Or is it decision making by media managers that assigns greater importance to one natural disaster over another? Or do some disasters just seem to be more important and more dramatic than others and therefore receive more attention? Maybe a little bit of all of the above.

 

 

 

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Are Hurricanes Getting Stronger?

September 13, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Recent modeling studies indicate that while the average number of Atlantic hurricanes per year will probably not increase by the end of the century, the intensity and amount of rainfall produced per storm most likely will rise. Global warming is thought be one contributor to these changes. As climate warms, ocean temperatures warm, causing increased evaporation and cloud formation.

 

A 2008 study by NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, last revised in August, 2011, indicates that global warming will very likely bring about these outcomes: (1) a 2% to 11% increase in hurricane intensity; (2) a doubling in the frequency of very intense – categories 4 and 5 – hurricanes; (3) higher rainfall rates than present day hurricanes, with a projected increase of 20% within 100 km (60 mi) of the storm center; (4)  no increase in the number of storms annually; (5) changes will be gradual, and probably not detectable for several decades.

 

Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee, the two 2011 tropical storms that made landfall in mainland United States up to September 13, were not as intense as originally forecast, but were heavy rainmakers and caused considerable property damage and a number of deaths.

Irene, which started as a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa, grew to a category 3 hurricane in the Caribbean, but had dropped to a category 1 when it made landfall on August 27 in North Carolina with a wind speed of 85 mph (140kph). After going back out to sea, Irene made its second landfall in New Jersey, and had been downgraded to a tropical storm when it made its third landfall in Brooklyn, NY.  Heavy rain associated with the storm caused widespread flooding in New Jersey and Vermont. 55 people were confirmed dead as a result of the storm. Property loss was estimated at $10 billion.

Lee started as tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico and was upgraded to a tropical storm on September 2. It came ashore in Louisiana on September 3 with sustained winds of 45 mph (80kph), but was a slow moving and very wet storm, depositing 11 inches (28mm) of rain on New Orleans and Mobile in the first 24 hours. It tracked north, delivering 13 inches (33mm) to parts of Pennsylvania, causing the Susquehanna River to  crest at just over 42 feet (13m), the highest ever recorded. Wilkes-Barre, PA and Binghamton, NY sustained substantial flood losses.

Earlier, Tropical Storm Arlene, the first of the season, produced heavy rain in several Mexican states, triggering mudslides that killed 22.

While this was happening in North America, Typhoon Talas struck Japan. It, too, was a low intensity, slow moving storm that produced very heavy rain. Wind speed didn’t exceed 65 mph (100kph), but parts of Japan received 79 inches (2,000mm) of rain between September 3 and September 8. 59 people died and 50 were missing as a result of flooding and mountain mudslides.

Storm surge was not a factor in either Irene or Lee, but In stronger hurricanes, more people die from the storm surge than from the high winds. A storm surge is created by the wind’s piling the ocean’s surface higher than ordinary sea level. Low pressure at the center of the weather system has a secondary effect in the buildup of the sea and the energy of the surge. A category 4 hurricane tends to build an 18-ft (5.5m) surge, but during Katrina in 2008, 20-to-30 ft (6.1 to 9.1m) waves were reported along parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Hurricanes and all tropical cyclones start as a cluster of thunderstorms moving over warm ocean water registering 80F (26C) and greater. Thunderstorms form in areas of wind convergence. Off the west coast of Africa, the northern and southern equatorial winds collide and force warm moist air to rise and condense to form storm cluster formations called tropical disturbances. As a tropical disturbance grows and organizes, more water vapor condenses in rising air, causing the surface air pressure to drop.

As more warm moist air rises and condenses, the storm system increases in size, the surface pressure drops further, and the storm becomes a tropical depression. The earth’s rotation can impart a spin to the storm clouds at this point, causing even more warm moist air inside the spiral to rise and condense, enlarging the storm area, and increasing the storm’s wind speed. The formation becomes a tropical storm when wind speed reaches 39 mph to 73 mph (62-117 KPH). The storm becomes a category 1 hurricane when the wind strengthens to 74 mph to 95 mph. Here are the hurricane categories:

Category         Wind MPH       KPH                  Surge Ft           Meters

1                      74 to 95           118-152           5                      1.5

2                      96 to 110         153-176           8                      2.4

3                      111 to 130       177-208           12                    3.7

4                      131-155           209-248           18                    5.5

5                      155+                248+                18+                   5.5+

Tropical Cyclones are called hurricanes in the Atlantic, typhoons in the Western Pacific, and cyclones in India and Australia. Even though the North American Eastern and Gulf Coasts have experienced many highly destructive hurricanes, tropical cyclones with even more devastating consequences have occurred in the Bay of Bengal, where much of Bangladesh and parts of India are low-lying wetlands and wide open to storm surge damage. The northern end of the Bay of Bengal is funnel shaped, and storm surges become tidal bores that sweep many miles inland. The Bhola cyclone in 1970 had sustained winds of 140 MPH (224 KPH) and a storm surge of 35 feet (10.7m). 500,000 died. In April, 1991, a similar storm in the same area killed 150,000. The biggest storm surges recorded occurred in India in 1839 when a 40-ft (12.2m) surge killed 300,000; and in Bathurst Bay in Queensland, Australia in 1899 when a 42-ft (12.8m) surge killed 400. It was reported at the time that dolphins and fish were found atop cliffs surrounding Bathurst Bay.

One of the most notorious typhoons in American military history hit Okinawa in October, 1945, two months after the end of World War II. A large segment of the U.S. naval task force that had been assembled for the invasion of Japan was still anchored in Buckner Bay on the east coast of Okinawa. Typhoon Louise, which had developed south of Guam, took a sudden unexpected turn and headed straight for Okinawa, giving the fleet no advance warning and no time to put to sea. The typhoon struck with sustained winds of 100 MPH (160 KPH), gusting to 120 MPH (192 KPH). Waves in the bay rose to 35 ft (10.7m). The fleet task force was devastated. 12 ships were lost, 222 went aground, and more than 30 were badly damaged. 83 sailors were dead or missing, and another 100 badly injured. It was fortunate for the Allies that the surrender had already been signed. The crippled task force would have been hard pressed to carry out its mission had it been called upon to do so. Damage on the island, where 200,000 troops had been massed for the invasion of Japan, was equally severe. Roads were washed out. Supply depots were blown down, scattered, and drenched by seawater blowing across the island. Aircraft and landing strips were badly damaged. Most islanders and many soldiers took refuge in Okinawa’s many caves.

Typhoons changed the course of history in 13th century Asia. The Mongolian leader Kublai Khan ruled all of mainland Asia, including Mongolia, China, and what is now Korea. The only Asian nation Kublai Kahn hadn’t conquered was Japan. In 1274, he assembled a fleet of hundreds of ships and thousands of soldiers and set out to invade the Japanese islands. Off the coast of Japan a typhoon struck the invading force. Most of the wooden ships were demolished and the rest retreated to the mainland. The Japanese called the typhoon Kamikaze, or divine wind. In 1281, Kublai Khan tried again, this time with thousands of ships and a hundred thousand soldiers. Once again a typhoon intervened, wrecking the invading fleet. Kublai Khan made no further attempt to conquer Japan. Twice, the Kamikaze divine wind had saved the Japanese empire. The Kamikaze pilots of World War II were named after the wind that saved Japan.

This is an updated revision of one of this website’s earlier articles. 

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Can Drought Bring Another Dust Bowl?

August 6, 2011 By Leave a Comment

In the 1930′s, a decade-long drought, high winds, and lack of soil conservation combined to strip the topsoil from hundreds of millions of acres of Great Plains farmland. The loosened soil blew east across Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle in thick black clouds that turned day into night. This disaster displaced millions of people and came to be known as the Dust Bowl.

The dust storms persisted for ten years, the concentration of flying dirt so thick at times that people couldn’t see more than a few feet ahead. Frequently the strong winds would carry the black blizzards east to Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, and other eastern U.S. cities, obscuring the sun and increasing the incidence of respiratory illness. Eventually, millions of tons of prime Great Plains topsoil sank to the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean.

Conditions made family farming in the Dust Bowl nearly impossible. Between 1935 and 1940, 2.5 million people gave up their farms and businesses in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Colorado, and New Mexico, and migrated west, many of them ending up as migrant workers in California fruit orchards and vegetable fields.

Now, 75 years later, the southwestern U.S., including some of the original Dust Bowl territory, finds itself in the grip of another long-term drought. Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and parts of Oklahoma have had little or no rain for over a year. Weather forecasts indicate no sign of the drought letting up anytime soon.

On July 5, 2011, high-energy downdrafts triggered by thunderstorms south of Phoenix, Arizona, created 60 mph (96kph) winds that scooped up tons of drought-dry soil and formed into a gigantic dust storm 100 miles (160k) wide and 5,000 ft. (1,524m) high.  Minutes later, this menacing black front roared through Phoenix, coating everything with fine dirt, knocking out power, disrupting travel, and creating health problems.

According to research conducted by USGS, as global warming raises temperatures, dust storms in the American southwest will become more frequent. Average temperature in the region has risen by 1.5°F (approx. 1°C) since 1950, and is projected to increase another 4° to 10°F by the end of the century. Higher temperatures will not only spawn more dust storms, but will also reduce plant density, weakening roots that hold the soil together. Human activities such as farming on arid or semi-arid land, overgrazing, and use of off-road vehicles break the soil crust. This exposes the land to wind erosion and dust storm formation.

Even though long-term drought and adverse weather conditions may bring an increased number of dust storms to the southwest, a Dust Bowl disaster is not a likely outcome, mainly due to improved farming and soil conservation practices in use in the U.S. over the last 70 years. Dust storms will happen but will be localized, and probably not develop on the massive, region-wide scale of the 1930s. However, dust storms of Dust Bowl magnitude are occurring with increased frequency in Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and northwestern China. Although these dust storms appear to be confined to local regions, wind currents carry their dust in suspension to many other parts of the world.

West Africa. There has been a 10-fold increase in dust storms in Saharan Africa since 1950. The increase has been even more dramatic in specific areas, increasing in Mauritania from 2 dust storms in 1960, to 80 last year. These frequent and more powerful events have caused a major loss of topsoil in Niger, Mali, southern Algeria, Chad, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, and northern Nigeria. Main causes of the dramatic change are deforestation and desertification through dry farming without soil conservation measures, loosening the parched soil which is then easily carried away by the high winds that occur in the region.

The African winds blow dust concentrations westward every year, depositing tons of dust and spores in the South Atlantic Ocean, and over a thousand miles away in Central and South America. As these dust clouds drift over the Atlantic, they screen out the sun and cool the ocean water, reducing evaporation, cloud formation, and rainfall. Dust settling in the Atlantic promotes algae bloom, a notorious fish and seafood killer. African dust storm health statistics are not readily available, but reports indicate many suffer from respiratory problems and there are a number of deaths from lung failure every year.

Northwest China. The huge area of China that borders Mongolia and Kazakhstan is semi-arid, with low annual rainfall. Dryland farming without appropriate conservation measures, and overgrazing of the vast high plains pastureland, have exposed loose, dry soil to the strong winds that come down out of the high mountains of Central Asia. These winds blow eastward toward China’s major cities . Beijing, China’s largest city, suffers a series of crippling dust storms every spring. When the dust storms strike, the sky turns orange, and breathing the air is hazardous to health. In recent years, the wind also picks up coal ash piled up outside manufacturing plants, and mixes it in with the soil dust. Coal ash contains high levels of mercury, so the dust storms originating in northwest China now deliver highly toxic clouds of dust, grit, and poisonous air to the cities of China.

Chinese dust storms don’t stop at the borders of China. Other Asian countries are in the path of the east-blowing jet stream, as are Hawaii, and continental United States. In 2001, a dust storm originating in northwest China took two weeks to cross the Pacific Ocean, finally delivering a dust plume 4 miles (7km) thick that hung for days in a dense haze over the Rocky Mountains from Canada to Colorado.

Middle East. Dust storms are an uncomfortable fact of life on the Arabian Peninsula, the vast dry area between the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, which includes Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. In spring and summer, the subtropical jet stream pushes up from the south at the same time that the polar jet stream pours down from Europe, creating what is known locally as a shamal, a strong wind that blows across the region at over 40 mph (64kph). The shamal picks up fine desert sand in Jordan and Syria, plus silt from the Tigris and Euphrates basins, and blows it southeast as far as India and the horn of Africa.

A strong shamal can create a dust and sandstorm front hundreds of miles wide and over 10,000 ft (3,000m) high. It usually blows continuously for 3 to 5 days, making breathing difficult, gumming up machinery, and sandblasting paint off cars and structures. In 2005, a shamal-driven dust storm brought Baghad to a standstill, one hospital treating more than a thousand patients for respiratory distress. People living in the area can expect 20 to 50 days of shamal sandstorms every year.

As global warming progresses, dust storms around the world will most likely grow in size and frequency, and last longer. And dust storms don’t recognize national boundaries. African dust storms end up in South America, Chinese dust storms in North America, and Middle Eastern dust storms in India and Africa. The dust clouds often pick up other pollutants as they travel, making these storms a serious part of the air pollution problem around the world. We hope that better soil conservation practices, and environmentally safer manufacturing practices in developing countries, will one day reduce the damage in health and treasure presently inflicted on the world population by dust storms.           

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Floods, Fires, & La Niña

July 3, 2011 By Leave a Comment

During the spring and early summer of 2011, the U.S. Northern Plains states of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri endured torrential rains, heavy snowmelt, swollen rivers, and near-record floods. During this same period, the south central and southwestern states were locked down in a 10-month-long drought, with record heat and massive wildfires. This split personality in the weather is largely attributable to La Niña, a climatic phase in which the equatorial Pacific Ocean turns cooler than normal, creating a weather pattern that sends heavy rain to the northern states and dry conditions to the U.S. southern tier.

Arizona and New Mexico wildfires. The Wallow fire in Arizona’s White Mountains burned for more than a month, blackening 866 square miles (2,240 square kilometers) (553,000 acres) (224,000 hectares) of national forest land before containment. High heat, strong winds, rugged terrain, and lack of rain made the blaze especially difficult to contain for the 1,300 firefighters on the line.

In neighboring New Mexico, the Las Conchas fire had burned 114,000 acres (46,000 hectares) of Santa Fe National Forest as it approached within 12 miles (20K) of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. More than 1,000 firefighters set up a containment line to keep the flames from reaching the nuclear facility’s waste storage area. A University of New Mexico geologist who studies the history of wildfires, stated that the behavior of southwestern firestorms in the last few decades “is at least as severe and maybe more so than anything we’ve seen since the last ice age.” Los Alamos Fire Chief Donald Tucker said, “We’ve seen fire behavior we’ve never seen down here, and it’s really aggressive.”

Texas drought. Texas has experienced the longest, most persistent drought in the state’s history. The entire state of Texas plus 32 counties in adjoining states were declared a disaster area by the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. Since August, 2010, the state had been plagued by heat, high winds, and lack of rain. Between November, 2010, and June, 2011, Texas wildfires had burned 3,300,000 acres (1,335,000 hectares). Parched grazing land forced ranchers to thin their herds by prematurely sending cattle to slaughter. Farmers throughout the state suffered extreme crop losses. One farmer said, “It’s so dry, the grass just crackles under my feet.” The June, 2011 high temperature recorded in one Texas city was 117F (47C). All farmers and ranchers in the disaster area are eligible to apply for aid from the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.

Missouri River flood. As heat and flame seared the southwest, the states in the northern plains fought to keep surging rivers from overflowing their banks. The 2010-2011 snowpack in the Rockies and other western mountain ranges was much heavier than normal, as was the spring runoff. Also, the stormy weather that brought tornadoes to some southern and Midwestern areas brought extremely heavy rain to the northern plains. The rain and runoff filled lakes and reservoirs to overflowing, and released extremely high volumes of water into the Missouri’s tributaries and into the river itself. The USDA estimated that the Missouri overflowed its banks and levees in several key places in Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri, inundating 550,000 acres of farmland, and submerging a number of rural homes and grain storage and processing facilities.

Souris River flood. The Souris is a Canadian river with its source in Saskatchewan. It runs west to east, dipping south through Minot, North Dakota, then looping back north into Canada to join the Assiniboine River that empties into Lake Winnipeg. The Souris’s volume increases dramatically as it runs south into North Dakota. In this wetter than normal year, the river at maximum flood stage crested 4 ft (1.2m) above a record set 130 years ago. 3,000 homes in Minot were flooded out and 12,000 people evacuated to higher ground.

The role of La Niña. Approximately every 5 years, the ocean water in the tropical Pacific around Australia and Indonesia warms or cools at least 0.5 degrees C (0.9 degrees F). When it turns warmer, the condition is called El Niño. When it cools, it is a La Niña condition. This warming or cooling of the tropical ocean is accompanied by an atmospheric change in the western Pacific called the Southern Oscillation. High pressure sets in during an El Niño, and low pressure during La Niña. The combination of El Niño/La Niña and the Southern Oscillation is referred to as ENSO.

Mainly, El Niño/La Niña conditions impact the weather in countries bordering the Pacific Ocean. During La Niña, South America experiences drought conditions, and Australia and Asia very wet conditions. In the past, La Niñas have lasted 6 to 9 months. In recent years, they have been stronger and lasted longer. The current La Niña that has been the cause of the northern flooding and southern fires and droughts began in May, 2010, and lasted till June, 2011, at which point it began to weaken, but the damage had been done.

Typically, during a La Niña, Western Canada, the Pacific Northwest, Northern California, and the northern Midwestern states have above-average precipitation, while the southwestern and southeastern states have below-average precipitation. This time, the north was excessively wet and cool while the south was excessively dry and hot, indicating that these phases are hitting harder and lasting longer. Some scientists attribute this to global warming, but that is still under study. Also under study are the mechanics of the phenomena. Meteorologists, oceanographers, and other disciplines know what ENSO does, but can’t yet fully explain exactly why it does what it does.

If ENSO behaves as it has in the past, there will be a period of “normal” weather, during which ENSO will not be a factor. That will be followed by an El Niño, when conditions reverse. The northern tier will experience drier than normal conditions, and the southern tier will be wetter than normal.

The 2010-2011 La Niña produced a series of natural disasters while in full sway, including fires, droughts, tornadoes, and floods that killed hundreds and displaced thousands. Most people will be glad to see it go.

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